Compendium › Wrecking Ball › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 15 trades in period

+18.29%
Last 3 Months Return
$26,177.49
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$22,130.57
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:58:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

72
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.4/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 72.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 72.5

30-Day Momentum

3
-5.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-69 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$22,130.57
Current Value
$26,177.49
Period P&L
$4,046.92
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
8 / 7
Best Trade
+10.69%
Worst Trade
-5.75%
Avg Trade Return
+1.28%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$730,396.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,046.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,046.92
Gross Return
+18.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $22,130.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 10:30am ET $1,110.33 20 $22,130.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,229.05 20 $24,496.84 $24,496.84 +$2,366.27
(+10.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $1,212.05 20 $24,496.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,202.56 20 $24,305.00 $24,305.00 $-191.84
(-0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $1,218.18 20 $24,305.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,184.84 20 $23,639.90 $23,639.90 $-665.10
(-2.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,152.25 21 $23,639.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,178.58 21 $24,180.09 $24,180.09 +$540.19
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 11:35am ET $1,165.81 21 $24,180.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,185.07 21 $24,579.56 $24,579.56 +$399.47
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 11:50am ET $1,218.03 20 $24,579.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,148.05 20 $23,167.48 $23,167.48 $-1,412.08
(-5.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET $1,134.37 20 $23,167.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,192.80 20 $24,360.81 $24,360.81 +$1,193.33
(+5.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $1,164.65 21 $24,360.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,220.42 21 $25,527.34 $25,527.34 +$1,166.53
(+4.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,182.74 22 $25,527.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,281.49 22 $27,658.57 $27,658.57 +$2,131.23
(+8.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $1,263.13 22 $27,658.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,233.57 22 $27,011.40 $27,011.40 $-647.17
(-2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $1,217.00 22 $27,011.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,157.51 22 $25,690.90 $25,690.90 $-1,320.50
(-4.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:30am ET $1,167.02 22 $25,690.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,148.74 22 $25,288.59 $25,288.59 $-402.31
(-1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $1,120.06 23 $25,288.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,115.25 23 $25,179.88 $25,179.88 $-108.71
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:45am ET $1,145.49 22 $25,179.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 3:40pm ET $1,174.56 22 $25,818.96 $25,818.96 +$639.08
(+2.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:45am ET $1,144.76 14 $15,957.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,170.48 14 $16,316.34 $26,177.49 +$358.53
(+2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $26,177.49
Net Profit/Loss: +$16,177.49
Total Return: +161.77%
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