Compendium › Wrecking Ball › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 15 trades in period

+19.04%
Last 3 Months Return
$17,110.66
Current Value
73%
Win Rate
$14,373.67
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

65
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.4/25
Win Rate
5.2/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 65.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 64.8

30-Day Momentum

14
+0.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.6 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-51 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,373.67
Current Value
$17,110.66
Period P&L
$2,736.99
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+9.70%
Worst Trade
-2.87%
Avg Trade Return
+0.97%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$482,433.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,736.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,736.99
Gross Return
+19.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $14,373.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET $372.78 40 $14,885.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $371.36 40 $14,828.89 $14,828.89 $-56.68
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:40am ET $371.65 40 $14,828.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $384.22 40 $15,330.44 $15,330.44 +$501.55
(+3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET $382.22 40 $15,330.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $383.05 40 $15,363.73 $15,363.73 +$33.29
(+0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:30am ET $383.14 40 $15,363.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $384.95 40 $15,436.51 $15,436.51 +$72.78
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 3:35pm ET $400.03 39 $15,436.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $402.51 39 $15,532.21 $15,532.21 +$95.70
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET $392.97 40 $15,532.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $381.74 40 $15,088.34 $15,088.34 $-443.87
(-2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:45pm ET $389.60 39 $15,088.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $392.40 39 $15,196.97 $15,196.97 +$108.63
(+0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 11:25am ET $444.49 34 $15,196.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $487.60 34 $16,670.89 $16,670.89 +$1,473.92
(+9.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET $492.46 34 $16,670.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $499.89 34 $16,922.41 $16,922.41 +$251.52
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $497.98 34 $16,922.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $495.42 34 $16,835.42 $16,835.42 $-86.99
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $479.74 35 $16,835.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $484.48 35 $17,001.58 $17,001.58 +$166.16
(+1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:40am ET $498.92 34 $17,001.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $507.32 34 $17,287.65 $17,287.65 +$286.07
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $506.30 34 $17,287.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $491.77 34 $16,791.69 $16,791.69 $-495.96
(-2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:55am ET $493.00 34 $16,791.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $497.12 34 $16,931.91 $16,931.91 +$140.22
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $488.30 35 $16,931.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $493.46 35 $17,110.66 $17,110.66 +$178.75
(+1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,110.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,110.66
Total Return: +71.11%
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