Compendium › Wrecking Ball › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 9 trades in period

+6.05%
Last 3 Months Return
$36,657.66
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$34,565.28
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:46

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

71
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.2/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 72.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 70.9

30-Day Momentum

30
+7.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.4 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-41 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$34,565.28
Current Value
$36,657.66
Period P&L
$2,092.38
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+8.93%
Worst Trade
-7.33%
Avg Trade Return
+0.64%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$642,595.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,092.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,092.38
Gross Return
+6.05%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $34,565.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $201.81 174 $35,044.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.72 174 $33,292.40 $33,292.40 $-1,752.12
(-5.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $193.65 172 $33,292.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $196.93 172 $33,856.30 $33,856.30 +$563.90
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:05am ET $200.07 169 $33,856.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $211.80 169 $35,841.28 $35,841.28 +$1,984.98
(+5.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $200.23 179 $35,841.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $212.06 179 $37,959.79 $37,959.79 +$2,118.51
(+5.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 3:05pm ET $205.10 185 $37,959.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $190.06 185 $35,176.19 $35,176.19 $-2,783.60
(-7.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $220.68 159 $35,176.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $214.75 159 $34,230.95 $34,230.95 $-945.24
(-2.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:25am ET $209.36 164 $34,230.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $228.05 164 $37,286.82 $37,286.82 +$3,055.87
(+8.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET $221.34 168 $37,286.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $224.40 168 $37,803.16 $37,803.16 +$516.34
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $218.80 173 $37,803.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $212.17 173 $36,657.66 $36,657.66 $-1,145.50
(-3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $36,657.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$26,657.66
Total Return: +266.58%
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