Compendium › Wrecking Ball › TMO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TMO
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 8 trades in period

+3.74%
Last 3 Months Return
$15,390.59
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$14,836.07
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:28:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

62
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
7.2/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 67.4/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 61.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-0.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-62 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,836.07
Current Value
$15,390.59
Period P&L
$554.52
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+2.49%
Worst Trade
-2.06%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$246,494.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$554.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$554.52
Gross Return
+3.74%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.74%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $14,836.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 10:55am ET $502.98 29 $14,836.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $513.52 29 $15,146.96 $15,146.96 +$310.89
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $513.13 30 $15,146.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $524.50 30 $15,482.59 $15,482.59 +$335.63
(+2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:20am ET $533.51 29 $15,482.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $526.24 29 $15,271.76 $15,271.76 $-210.83
(-1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 12:55pm ET $570.24 27 $15,271.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $576.40 27 $15,436.73 $15,436.73 +$164.97
(+1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 10:10am ET $563.99 27 $15,436.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $564.49 27 $15,450.42 $15,450.42 +$13.69
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 9:45am ET $618.52 25 $15,450.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $633.95 25 $15,835.86 $15,835.86 +$385.44
(+2.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET $621.34 25 $15,835.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $608.54 25 $15,509.51 $15,509.51 $-326.35
(-2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:55am ET $607.78 26 $15,509.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $603.12 26 $15,390.59 $15,390.59 $-118.92
(-0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,390.59
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,390.59
Total Return: +53.91%
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