Compendium › Wrecking Ball › ISRG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ISRG
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 24 trades in period

+0.74%
Last 6 Months Return
$20,714.70
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$20,562.81
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:58:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score PRO Scored Sep 24, 2026

72
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
9.4/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 73.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 71.9

30-Day Momentum

50
+11.3%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
4
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 75.8 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,562.81
Current Value
$20,714.70
Period P&L
$151.89
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
14 / 10
Best Trade
+8.36%
Worst Trade
-11.14%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$910,740.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$151.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$151.89
Gross Return
+0.74%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.74%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $20,562.81 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:35am ET $468.70 44 $20,562.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $452.77 44 $19,863.93 $19,863.93 $-698.88
(-3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $450.20 44 $19,863.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $452.58 44 $19,969.16 $19,969.16 +$105.23
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET $454.06 44 $19,969.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $467.21 44 $20,547.49 $20,547.49 +$578.33
(+2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:45am ET $458.31 45 $20,547.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $451.43 45 $20,239.04 $20,239.04 $-308.45
(-1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:45am ET $471.89 43 $20,239.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $453.78 43 $19,462.52 $19,462.52 $-776.52
(-3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:00pm ET $450.05 43 $19,462.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $450.06 43 $19,462.95 $19,462.95 +$0.43
(+0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:35am ET $442.26 44 $19,462.95 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $428.03 44 $18,836.72 $18,836.72 $-626.23
(-3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $437.33 43 $18,836.72 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $418.62 43 $18,030.84 $18,030.84 $-805.88
(-4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET $416.73 43 $18,030.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $418.89 43 $18,124.73 $18,124.73 +$93.89
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $408.00 44 $18,124.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $417.26 44 $18,536.09 $18,536.09 +$411.36
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $405.28 46 $18,536.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $403.18 46 $18,440.04 $18,440.04 $-96.05
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET $404.02 46 $18,440.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $405.89 46 $18,525.51 $18,525.51 +$85.47
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $399.61 46 $18,525.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $433.02 46 $20,074.36 $20,074.36 +$1,548.85
(+8.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:10am ET $430.73 47 $20,074.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $406.78 47 $18,958.16 $18,958.16 $-1,116.20
(-5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $388.79 49 $18,958.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $345.47 49 $16,845.79 $16,845.79 $-2,112.37
(-11.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $345.47 49 $16,845.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $340.72 49 $16,614.17 $16,614.17 $-231.62
(-1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $336.35 49 $16,614.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $361.95 49 $17,878.69 $17,878.69 +$1,264.52
(+7.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET $355.70 50 $17,878.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $375.42 50 $18,869.88 $18,869.88 +$991.19
(+5.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:05am ET $367.13 51 $18,869.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $378.71 51 $19,465.34 $19,465.34 +$595.46
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET $391.50 50 $19,465.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $374.40 50 $18,615.13 $18,615.13 $-850.21
(-4.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET $367.96 51 $18,615.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $372.50 51 $18,844.81 $18,844.81 +$229.68
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $366.72 51 $18,844.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $369.78 51 $19,002.06 $19,002.06 +$157.25
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $359.80 53 $19,002.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $369.68 53 $19,523.85 $19,523.85 +$521.79
(+2.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET $370.61 53 $19,523.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $393.21 53 $20,714.70 $20,714.70 +$1,190.85
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,714.70
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,714.70
Total Return: +107.15%
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