MSFT Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-27 to present • 31 trades in period
+7.47%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,870.95
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$14,768.00
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
15
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.9
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.40%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.78
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.5
Active
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.
Strategy Score Scored Jun 27, 2026
64
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.8/25
Win Rate
4.3/15
Profit Factor
3.6/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
64.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 63.8
30-Day Momentum
3
-7.8%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-61 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,746
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-27 → 2026-06-26
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$14,768.00
Current Value
$15,870.95
Period P&L
$1,102.95
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
16 /
15
Best Trade
+9.12%
Worst Trade
-4.52%
Avg Trade Return
+0.27%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$996,136.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,102.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,102.95
Gross Return
+7.47%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.47%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $14,768.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $478.95 | 31 | $14,768.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $478.51 | 31 | $14,754.43 | $14,754.43 |
$-13.57 (-0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $478.93 | 31 | $14,754.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $477.19 | 31 | $14,700.83 | $14,700.83 |
$-53.60 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $464.66 | 32 | $14,700.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $459.87 | 32 | $14,549.28 | $14,549.28 |
$-151.55 (-1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $449.43 | 32 | $14,549.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $465.81 | 32 | $15,079.68 | $15,079.68 |
+$530.40 (+3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $432.00 | 35 | $15,079.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $423.31 | 35 | $14,776.34 | $14,776.34 |
$-303.34 (-2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $405.70 | 36 | $14,776.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $413.50 | 36 | $15,060.43 | $15,060.43 |
+$284.09 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $409.70 | 37 | $15,060.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $400.82 | 37 | $14,734.00 | $14,734.00 |
$-326.43 (-2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $396.91 | 37 | $14,734.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $398.48 | 37 | $14,792.28 | $14,792.28 |
+$58.28 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $388.43 | 38 | $14,792.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $400.58 | 38 | $15,254.98 | $15,254.98 |
+$462.70 (+3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.58 | 39 | $15,254.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $403.69 | 39 | $15,767.02 | $15,767.02 |
+$512.04 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $404.76 | 39 | $15,767.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $409.41 | 39 | $15,948.16 | $15,948.16 |
+$181.14 (+1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $404.66 | 39 | $15,948.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $402.42 | 39 | $15,859.64 | $15,859.64 |
$-88.52 (-0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $397.94 | 40 | $15,859.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $399.43 | 40 | $15,919.22 | $15,919.22 |
+$59.58 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $384.38 | 41 | $15,919.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $372.54 | 41 | $15,428.86 | $15,428.86 |
$-490.36 (-3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $361.72 | 43 | $15,428.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $370.52 | 43 | $15,804.00 | $15,804.00 |
+$375.14 (+2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $365.58 | 43 | $15,804.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $371.62 | 43 | $16,065.11 | $16,065.11 |
+$261.11 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $368.73 | 44 | $16,065.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $383.86 | 44 | $16,724.09 | $16,724.09 |
+$658.98 (+4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $423.78 | 39 | $16,724.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $423.89 | 39 | $16,728.43 | $16,728.43 |
+$4.34 (+0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $419.14 | 40 | $16,728.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $425.05 | 40 | $16,964.71 | $16,964.71 |
+$236.28 (+1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $422.21 | 40 | $16,964.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $413.96 | 40 | $16,633.22 | $16,633.22 |
$-331.49 (-2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:35am ET | $414.63 | 40 | $16,633.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $413.90 | 40 | $16,604.14 | $16,604.14 |
$-29.08 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $416.55 | 40 | $16,604.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $407.27 | 40 | $16,234.23 | $16,234.23 |
$-369.91 (-2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $402.38 | 40 | $16,234.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $420.85 | 40 | $16,979.41 | $16,979.41 |
+$745.18 (+4.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.85 | 41 | $16,979.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $421.25 | 41 | $17,199.90 | $17,199.90 |
+$220.49 (+1.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $415.87 | 41 | $17,199.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $416.16 | 41 | $17,211.89 | $17,211.89 |
+$11.99 (+0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $411.58 | 42 | $17,211.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $449.11 | 42 | $18,781.36 | $18,781.36 |
+$1,569.47 (+9.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.97 | 42 | $18,781.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $428.08 | 42 | $17,987.62 | $17,987.62 |
$-793.74 (-4.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $422.77 | 43 | $17,987.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $403.65 | 43 | $17,174.14 | $17,174.14 |
$-813.48 (-4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $398.06 | 43 | $17,174.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $390.42 | 43 | $16,844.52 | $16,844.52 |
$-329.62 (-1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.99 | 43 | $16,844.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $379.57 | 43 | $16,186.63 | $16,186.63 |
$-657.89 (-3.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $373.55 | 43 | $16,186.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $366.26 | 43 | $15,870.95 | $15,870.95 |
$-315.68 (-2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,870.95
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,870.95
Total Return:
+58.71%