Compendium › Wrecking Ball › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 20 trades in period

+50.14%
Last 6 Months Return
$54,479.30
Current Value
70%
Win Rate
$36,284.87
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:18:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score PRO Scored Sep 24, 2026

79
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.0/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
7.2/15
Consistency
7.9/10
Raw Quality 80.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 79.4

30-Day Momentum

58
+16.3%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
4
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 87.0 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$36,284.87
Current Value
$54,479.30
Period P&L
$18,194.43
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.37

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
14 / 6
Best Trade
+8.33%
Worst Trade
-11.39%
Avg Trade Return
+2.23%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,727,217.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$18,194.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$18,194.43
Gross Return
+50.14%
Net Return (after fees)
+50.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $36,284.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET $42.76 849 $36,284.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $37.89 849 $32,152.33 $32,152.33 $-4,132.54
(-11.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $41.03 784 $32,152.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $44.15 784 $34,601.47 $34,601.47 +$2,449.14
(+7.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET $58.11 595 $34,601.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $62.64 595 $37,298.91 $37,298.91 +$2,697.44
(+7.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:25am ET $74.25 502 $37,298.91 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.94 502 $39,654.84 $39,654.84 +$2,355.93
(+6.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $71.51 554 $39,654.84 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $76.93 554 $42,660.21 $42,660.21 +$3,005.37
(+7.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET $84.02 508 $42,660.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $76.30 508 $38,739.26 $38,739.26 $-3,920.95
(-9.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $71.69 540 $38,739.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $76.00 540 $41,068.26 $41,068.26 +$2,329.00
(+6.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $77.27 531 $41,068.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $82.58 531 $43,890.48 $43,890.48 +$2,822.22
(+6.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $72.81 603 $43,890.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $71.60 603 $43,157.06 $43,157.06 $-733.42
(-1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $77.78 555 $43,157.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $76.39 555 $42,385.91 $42,385.91 $-771.15
(-1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $74.05 572 $42,385.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $74.40 572 $42,586.19 $42,586.19 +$200.28
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $65.97 646 $42,586.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $71.38 646 $46,078.55 $46,078.55 +$3,492.36
(+8.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $67.39 684 $46,078.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $63.39 684 $43,340.30 $43,340.30 $-2,738.25
(-5.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:10am ET $59.76 725 $43,340.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $64.54 725 $46,807.02 $46,807.02 +$3,466.72
(+8.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $70.90 660 $46,807.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $73.79 660 $48,711.65 $48,711.65 +$1,904.63
(+4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $73.29 665 $48,711.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $70.48 665 $46,844.01 $46,844.01 $-1,867.64
(-3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $68.88 680 $46,844.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $70.43 680 $47,898.48 $47,898.48 +$1,054.47
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $68.93 695 $47,898.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.04 695 $50,063.20 $50,063.20 +$2,164.72
(+4.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $68.95 726 $50,063.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $69.26 726 $50,288.29 $50,288.29 +$225.09
(+0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $67.07 750 $50,288.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.67 750 $54,479.30 $54,479.30 +$4,191.01
(+8.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $54,479.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$44,479.30
Total Return: +444.79%
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