Compendium › Wrecking Ball › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 23 trades in period

+17.61%
Last 6 Months Return
$20,788.39
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$17,675.82
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:31:20

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

73
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
6.2/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 74.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 72.8

30-Day Momentum

19
+2.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 28.1 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-54 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,675.82
Current Value
$20,788.39
Period P&L
$3,112.57
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
14 / 9
Best Trade
+4.87%
Worst Trade
-7.49%
Avg Trade Return
+0.76%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$872,103.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,112.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,112.57
Gross Return
+17.61%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $17,675.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $135.11 131 $17,675.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $127.51 131 $16,681.55 $16,681.55 $-994.27
(-5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:20pm ET $134.47 124 $16,681.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $136.78 124 $16,968.11 $16,968.11 +$286.56
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET $155.40 109 $16,968.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $160.57 109 $17,532.06 $17,532.06 +$563.95
(+3.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 10:25am ET $157.39 111 $17,532.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $162.05 111 $18,051.15 $18,051.15 +$519.09
(+3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:15pm ET $169.63 106 $18,051.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $177.89 106 $18,930.14 $18,930.14 +$878.99
(+4.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $176.18 107 $18,930.14 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $173.25 107 $18,615.32 $18,615.32 $-314.82
(-1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:20am ET $183.58 101 $18,615.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.04 101 $19,371.78 $19,371.78 +$756.46
(+4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $194.86 99 $19,371.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $180.26 99 $17,920.34 $17,920.34 $-1,451.44
(-7.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:35am ET $183.16 98 $17,920.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.19 98 $17,923.28 $17,923.28 +$2.94
(+0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:25am ET $189.68 94 $17,923.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.31 94 $18,077.30 $18,077.30 +$154.02
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $185.21 98 $18,077.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $184.57 98 $18,014.83 $18,014.83 $-62.47
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $179.12 101 $18,014.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $185.65 101 $18,671.58 $18,671.58 +$656.75
(+3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $179.02 104 $18,671.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $185.32 104 $19,328.66 $19,328.66 +$657.08
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $182.98 106 $19,328.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.63 106 $19,186.58 $19,186.58 $-142.08
(-0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $172.80 111 $19,186.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $180.71 111 $20,064.85 $20,064.85 +$878.27
(+4.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:50am ET $178.25 113 $20,064.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $174.31 113 $19,621.34 $19,621.34 $-443.51
(-2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:50am ET $169.92 115 $19,621.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $175.28 115 $20,240.28 $20,240.28 +$618.94
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $182.91 111 $20,240.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $186.36 111 $20,622.05 $20,622.05 +$381.77
(+1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $186.76 110 $20,622.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.11 110 $20,219.02 $20,219.02 $-403.03
(-2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $180.45 112 $20,219.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.88 112 $20,490.74 $20,490.74 +$271.72
(+1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET $186.53 110 $20,490.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.66 110 $20,175.46 $20,175.46 $-315.28
(-1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $184.82 109 $20,175.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $184.25 109 $20,113.24 $20,113.24 $-62.22
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $183.48 110 $20,113.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $189.64 110 $20,788.39 $20,788.39 +$675.15
(+3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,788.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,788.39
Total Return: +107.88%
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