Compendium › Wrecking Ball › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 26 trades in period

+9.80%
Year to Date Return
$16,887.44
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$15,380.31
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

61
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 70.6/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 61.4

30-Day Momentum

0
-3.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-61 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,449
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$15,380.31
Current Value
$16,887.44
Period P&L
$1,507.13
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
15 / 11
Best Trade
+16.86%
Worst Trade
-12.16%
Avg Trade Return
+0.51%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$791,999.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,507.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,507.13
Gross Return
+9.80%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $15,380.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $297.60 52 $15,380.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $294.60 52 $15,225.27 $15,225.27 $-155.04
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET $310.58 49 $15,225.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $314.69 49 $15,426.75 $15,426.75 +$201.48
(+1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $283.43 54 $15,426.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $298.88 54 $16,267.68 $16,267.68 +$840.93
(+5.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:10am ET $284.76 57 $16,267.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $262.38 57 $14,989.43 $14,989.43 $-1,278.25
(-7.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $254.30 59 $14,989.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $223.39 59 $13,167.27 $13,167.27 $-1,822.16
(-12.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $236.45 56 $13,167.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $245.38 56 $13,664.85 $13,664.85 +$497.58
(+3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $253.46 54 $13,664.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $250.20 54 $13,489.09 $13,489.09 $-175.76
(-1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $244.04 55 $13,489.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $241.72 55 $13,360.58 $13,360.58 $-128.51
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET $236.56 56 $13,360.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $237.82 56 $13,431.89 $13,431.89 +$71.31
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $228.04 59 $13,431.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $228.05 59 $13,432.51 $13,432.51 +$0.62
(+0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 9:50am ET $225.20 60 $13,432.51 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $219.28 60 $13,079.25 $13,079.25 $-353.26
(-2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $217.23 60 $13,079.25 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $253.85 60 $15,284.11 $15,284.11 +$2,204.86
(+16.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $317.27 48 $15,284.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $305.80 48 $14,731.56 $14,731.56 $-552.55
(-3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $294.71 50 $14,731.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $277.50 50 $13,871.29 $13,871.29 $-860.27
(-5.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET $267.84 52 $13,871.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $270.71 52 $14,019.93 $14,019.93 +$148.64
(+1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $247.94 57 $14,019.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $264.88 57 $14,977.81 $14,977.81 +$957.88
(+6.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $258.02 58 $14,977.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $277.90 58 $16,132.11 $16,132.11 +$1,154.30
(+7.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $299.48 54 $16,132.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $287.61 54 $15,492.71 $15,492.71 $-639.40
(-4.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $217.85 71 $15,492.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $219.24 71 $15,591.56 $15,591.56 +$98.85
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET $200.05 78 $15,591.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $215.98 78 $16,833.12 $16,833.12 +$1,241.56
(+8.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $224.07 75 $16,833.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $226.15 75 $16,989.76 $16,989.76 +$156.64
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $229.53 74 $16,989.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $236.13 74 $17,478.66 $17,478.66 +$488.90
(+2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET $233.06 75 $17,478.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $234.38 75 $17,577.66 $17,577.66 +$99.00
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $230.56 76 $17,577.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $229.84 76 $17,522.77 $17,522.77 $-54.89
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $230.66 76 $17,522.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $234.68 76 $17,828.16 $17,828.16 +$305.39
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $242.39 74 $17,828.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $229.60 74 $16,887.44 $16,887.44 $-940.72
(-5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,887.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,887.44
Total Return: +68.87%
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