ISRG Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 35 trades in period
+5.27%
Year to Date Return
$20,714.70
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$19,677.83
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score PRO Scored Sep 24, 2026
72
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
9.4/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality
73.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 71.9
30-Day Momentum
50
+11.3%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
4
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 75.8
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,801
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$19,677.83
Current Value
$20,714.70
Period P&L
$1,036.87
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
21 /
14
Best Trade
+8.36%
Worst Trade
-11.14%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,347,317.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,036.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,036.87
Gross Return
+5.27%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.27%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $19,677.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $557.55 | 35 | $19,677.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $592.36 | 35 | $20,906.43 | $20,906.43 |
+$1,228.60 (+6.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $575.01 | 36 | $20,906.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $541.00 | 36 | $19,669.88 | $19,669.88 |
$-1,236.55 (-5.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $525.10 | 37 | $19,669.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $522.04 | 37 | $19,555.24 | $19,555.24 |
$-114.64 (-0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $513.88 | 38 | $19,555.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $478.87 | 38 | $18,223.14 | $18,223.14 |
$-1,332.10 (-6.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $471.26 | 39 | $18,223.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $492.81 | 39 | $19,056.46 | $19,056.46 |
+$833.32 (+4.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $487.89 | 39 | $19,056.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $500.78 | 39 | $19,559.93 | $19,559.93 |
+$503.47 (+2.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $495.55 | 39 | $19,559.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $506.88 | 39 | $20,007.14 | $20,007.14 |
+$447.21 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $492.71 | 41 | $20,007.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $496.73 | 41 | $20,170.38 | $20,170.38 |
+$163.24 (+0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $483.49 | 42 | $20,170.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $492.89 | 42 | $20,562.53 | $20,562.53 |
+$392.15 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $485.17 | 42 | $20,562.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $482.69 | 42 | $20,457.42 | $20,457.42 |
$-105.11 (-0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $475.58 | 43 | $20,457.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $478.03 | 43 | $20,562.81 | $20,562.81 |
+$105.39 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $468.70 | 44 | $20,562.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $452.77 | 44 | $19,863.93 | $19,863.93 |
$-698.88 (-3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET | $450.20 | 44 | $19,863.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $452.58 | 44 | $19,969.16 | $19,969.16 |
+$105.23 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $454.06 | 44 | $19,969.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $467.21 | 44 | $20,547.49 | $20,547.49 |
+$578.33 (+2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $458.31 | 45 | $20,547.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $451.43 | 45 | $20,239.04 | $20,239.04 |
$-308.45 (-1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $471.89 | 43 | $20,239.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $453.78 | 43 | $19,462.52 | $19,462.52 |
$-776.52 (-3.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:00pm ET | $450.05 | 43 | $19,462.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $450.06 | 43 | $19,462.95 | $19,462.95 |
+$0.43 (+0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $442.26 | 44 | $19,462.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $428.03 | 44 | $18,836.72 | $18,836.72 |
$-626.23 (-3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $437.33 | 43 | $18,836.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $418.62 | 43 | $18,030.84 | $18,030.84 |
$-805.88 (-4.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $416.73 | 43 | $18,030.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $418.89 | 43 | $18,124.73 | $18,124.73 |
+$93.89 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $408.00 | 44 | $18,124.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $417.26 | 44 | $18,536.09 | $18,536.09 |
+$411.36 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 2:00pm ET | $405.28 | 46 | $18,536.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $403.18 | 46 | $18,440.04 | $18,440.04 |
$-96.05 (-0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $404.02 | 46 | $18,440.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $405.89 | 46 | $18,525.51 | $18,525.51 |
+$85.47 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $399.61 | 46 | $18,525.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $433.02 | 46 | $20,074.36 | $20,074.36 |
+$1,548.85 (+8.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $430.73 | 47 | $20,074.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $406.78 | 47 | $18,958.16 | $18,958.16 |
$-1,116.20 (-5.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $388.79 | 49 | $18,958.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $345.47 | 49 | $16,845.79 | $16,845.79 |
$-2,112.37 (-11.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $345.47 | 49 | $16,845.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $340.72 | 49 | $16,614.17 | $16,614.17 |
$-231.62 (-1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $336.35 | 49 | $16,614.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $361.95 | 49 | $17,878.69 | $17,878.69 |
+$1,264.52 (+7.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.70 | 50 | $17,878.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $375.42 | 50 | $18,869.88 | $18,869.88 |
+$991.19 (+5.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $367.13 | 51 | $18,869.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $378.71 | 51 | $19,465.34 | $19,465.34 |
+$595.46 (+3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $391.50 | 50 | $19,465.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $374.40 | 50 | $18,615.13 | $18,615.13 |
$-850.21 (-4.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET | $367.96 | 51 | $18,615.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $372.50 | 51 | $18,844.81 | $18,844.81 |
+$229.68 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $366.72 | 51 | $18,844.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $369.78 | 51 | $19,002.06 | $19,002.06 |
+$157.25 (+0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.80 | 53 | $19,002.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $369.68 | 53 | $19,523.85 | $19,523.85 |
+$521.79 (+2.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $370.61 | 53 | $19,523.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $393.21 | 53 | $20,714.70 | $20,714.70 |
+$1,190.85 (+6.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,714.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,714.70
Total Return:
+107.15%