LLY Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 42 trades in period
+16.00%
Year to Date Return
$26,177.49
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$22,565.85
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
72
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.4/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality
72.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 72.5
30-Day Momentum
3
-5.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-69 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,410
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$22,565.85
Current Value
$26,177.49
Period P&L
$3,611.63
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
21 /
21
Best Trade
+10.69%
Worst Trade
-5.75%
Avg Trade Return
+0.45%
Avg Hold Time
4.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,889,451.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,611.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,611.63
Gross Return
+16.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $22,565.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,072.70 | 21 | $22,515.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,041.44 | 21 | $21,859.35 | $21,859.35 |
$-656.13 (-2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,054.02 | 21 | $21,859.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,063.56 | 21 | $22,057.23 | $22,057.23 |
+$197.88 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,066.85 | 21 | $22,057.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,041.87 | 21 | $21,540.87 | $21,540.87 |
$-516.36 (-2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,082.40 | 20 | $21,540.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,038.54 | 20 | $20,668.01 | $20,668.01 |
$-872.86 (-4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,019.00 | 20 | $20,668.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,043.09 | 20 | $21,156.62 | $21,156.62 |
+$488.61 (+2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,034.37 | 20 | $21,156.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,057.89 | 20 | $21,637.69 | $21,637.69 |
+$481.07 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,064.47 | 20 | $21,637.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,038.95 | 20 | $21,118.94 | $21,118.94 |
$-518.75 (-2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,038.95 | 20 | $21,118.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,020.16 | 20 | $20,736.99 | $20,736.99 |
$-381.95 (-1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $1,007.54 | 21 | $20,736.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,029.54 | 21 | $21,189.79 | $21,189.79 |
+$452.80 (+2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,015.76 | 21 | $21,189.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,007.51 | 21 | $21,017.69 | $21,017.69 |
$-172.10 (-0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $999.72 | 21 | $21,017.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,008.44 | 21 | $21,201.02 | $21,201.02 |
+$183.33 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $985.40 | 22 | $21,201.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $930.51 | 22 | $20,020.05 | $20,020.05 |
$-1,180.97 (-5.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $912.84 | 22 | $20,020.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $910.77 | 22 | $19,974.62 | $19,974.62 |
$-45.43 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $902.89 | 22 | $19,974.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $877.69 | 22 | $19,417.23 | $19,417.23 |
$-557.39 (-2.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $887.02 | 22 | $19,417.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $935.58 | 22 | $20,480.23 | $20,480.23 |
+$1,063.00 (+5.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $903.52 | 23 | $20,480.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $939.57 | 23 | $21,297.38 | $21,297.38 |
+$817.15 (+4.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $934.84 | 23 | $21,297.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $903.43 | 23 | $20,581.69 | $20,581.69 |
$-715.69 (-3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $892.33 | 23 | $20,581.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $884.27 | 23 | $20,395.79 | $20,395.79 |
$-185.90 (-0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $880.07 | 23 | $20,395.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $934.31 | 23 | $21,652.75 | $21,652.75 |
+$1,256.96 (+6.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $964.74 | 22 | $21,652.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $987.05 | 22 | $22,153.48 | $22,153.48 |
+$500.73 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $980.70 | 23 | $22,153.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $990.04 | 23 | $22,364.46 | $22,364.46 |
+$210.98 (+1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,007.33 | 22 | $22,364.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,021.41 | 22 | $22,677.17 | $22,677.17 |
+$312.71 (+1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,013.35 | 22 | $22,677.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,066.18 | 22 | $23,859.42 | $23,859.42 |
+$1,182.25 (+5.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $1,127.10 | 21 | $23,859.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,064.63 | 21 | $22,536.96 | $22,536.96 |
$-1,322.46 (-5.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,124.95 | 20 | $22,536.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,143.86 | 20 | $22,915.80 | $22,915.80 |
+$378.84 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1,141.74 | 20 | $22,915.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,130.66 | 20 | $22,693.31 | $22,693.31 |
$-222.49 (-1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,131.76 | 20 | $22,693.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,103.69 | 20 | $22,130.57 | $22,130.57 |
$-562.74 (-2.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,110.33 | 20 | $22,130.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,229.05 | 20 | $24,496.84 | $24,496.84 |
+$2,366.27 (+10.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,212.05 | 20 | $24,496.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,202.56 | 20 | $24,305.00 | $24,305.00 |
$-191.84 (-0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,218.18 | 20 | $24,305.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,184.84 | 20 | $23,639.90 | $23,639.90 |
$-665.10 (-2.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,152.25 | 21 | $23,639.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,178.58 | 21 | $24,180.09 | $24,180.09 |
+$540.19 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,165.81 | 21 | $24,180.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,185.07 | 21 | $24,579.56 | $24,579.56 |
+$399.47 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $1,218.03 | 20 | $24,579.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,148.05 | 20 | $23,167.48 | $23,167.48 |
$-1,412.08 (-5.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,134.37 | 20 | $23,167.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,192.80 | 20 | $24,360.81 | $24,360.81 |
+$1,193.33 (+5.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,164.65 | 21 | $24,360.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,220.42 | 21 | $25,527.34 | $25,527.34 |
+$1,166.53 (+4.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,182.74 | 22 | $25,527.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,281.49 | 22 | $27,658.57 | $27,658.57 |
+$2,131.23 (+8.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,263.13 | 22 | $27,658.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,233.57 | 22 | $27,011.40 | $27,011.40 |
$-647.17 (-2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,217.00 | 22 | $27,011.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,157.51 | 22 | $25,690.90 | $25,690.90 |
$-1,320.50 (-4.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,167.02 | 22 | $25,690.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,148.74 | 22 | $25,288.59 | $25,288.59 |
$-402.31 (-1.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,120.06 | 23 | $25,288.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,115.25 | 23 | $25,179.88 | $25,179.88 |
$-108.71 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,145.49 | 22 | $25,179.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:40pm ET | $1,174.56 | 22 | $25,818.96 | $25,818.96 |
+$639.08 (+2.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,144.76 | 14 | $15,957.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,170.48 | 14 | $16,316.34 | $26,177.49 |
+$358.53 (+2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$26,177.49
Net Profit/Loss:
+$16,177.49
Total Return:
+161.77%