MSFT Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
+15.86%
Year to Date Return
$17,110.66
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$14,768.00
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
65
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.4/25
Win Rate
5.2/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
65.9/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 64.8
30-Day Momentum
14
+0.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.6
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-51 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,059
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,768.00
Current Value
$17,110.66
Period P&L
$2,342.66
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
25 /
18
Best Trade
+9.70%
Worst Trade
-5.32%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,357,017.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,342.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,342.66
Gross Return
+15.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $14,768.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $478.95 | 31 | $14,768.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $478.51 | 31 | $14,754.43 | $14,754.43 |
$-13.57 (-0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $478.93 | 31 | $14,754.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $477.19 | 31 | $14,700.83 | $14,700.83 |
$-53.60 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $464.66 | 32 | $14,700.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $459.87 | 32 | $14,549.28 | $14,549.28 |
$-151.55 (-1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $449.43 | 32 | $14,549.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $465.81 | 32 | $15,079.68 | $15,079.68 |
+$530.40 (+3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $432.00 | 35 | $15,079.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $423.31 | 35 | $14,776.34 | $14,776.34 |
$-303.34 (-2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $405.70 | 36 | $14,776.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $413.50 | 36 | $15,060.43 | $15,060.43 |
+$284.09 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $409.70 | 37 | $15,060.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $401.16 | 37 | $14,746.50 | $14,746.50 |
$-313.93 (-2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $392.70 | 38 | $14,746.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $400.49 | 38 | $15,039.03 | $15,039.03 |
+$292.53 (+2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $393.27 | 38 | $15,039.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $403.78 | 38 | $15,440.94 | $15,440.94 |
+$401.91 (+2.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $405.00 | 38 | $15,440.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $408.62 | 38 | $15,578.96 | $15,578.96 |
+$138.02 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $404.56 | 39 | $15,578.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $401.89 | 39 | $15,476.14 | $15,476.14 |
$-102.82 (-0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $397.85 | 39 | $15,476.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $399.50 | 39 | $15,540.52 | $15,540.52 |
+$64.38 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.42 | 40 | $15,540.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $372.75 | 40 | $15,068.95 | $15,068.95 |
$-471.57 (-3.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.92 | 42 | $15,068.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $370.16 | 42 | $15,497.69 | $15,497.69 |
+$428.74 (+2.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $365.41 | 42 | $15,497.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $372.27 | 42 | $15,788.63 | $15,788.63 |
+$290.94 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $367.70 | 43 | $15,788.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $384.37 | 43 | $16,504.42 | $16,504.42 |
+$715.79 (+4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $423.76 | 39 | $16,504.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $424.25 | 39 | $16,523.50 | $16,523.50 |
+$19.08 (+0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $421.69 | 39 | $16,523.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $425.06 | 39 | $16,655.55 | $16,655.55 |
+$132.05 (+0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.38 | 39 | $16,655.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $414.51 | 39 | $16,345.22 | $16,345.22 |
$-310.33 (-1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $415.09 | 39 | $16,345.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $413.76 | 39 | $16,292.85 | $16,292.85 |
$-52.37 (-0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:50pm ET | $421.64 | 39 | $16,292.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $412.68 | 39 | $15,946.43 | $15,946.43 |
$-346.42 (-2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $403.86 | 39 | $15,946.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $422.04 | 39 | $16,664.47 | $16,664.47 |
+$718.04 (+4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $417.63 | 40 | $16,664.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $421.06 | 40 | $16,801.34 | $16,801.34 |
+$136.87 (+0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $416.65 | 40 | $16,801.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $412.69 | 40 | $16,641.65 | $16,641.65 |
$-159.69 (-1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $448.42 | 37 | $16,641.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $428.08 | 37 | $15,886.80 | $15,886.80 |
$-754.85 (-4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:05pm ET | $416.31 | 38 | $15,886.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $403.10 | 38 | $15,382.69 | $15,382.69 |
$-504.11 (-3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $391.34 | 39 | $15,382.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $399.97 | 39 | $15,721.92 | $15,721.92 |
+$339.23 (+2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $387.81 | 41 | $15,721.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $367.18 | 41 | $14,885.57 | $14,885.57 |
$-836.35 (-5.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $372.78 | 40 | $14,885.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $371.36 | 40 | $14,828.89 | $14,828.89 |
$-56.68 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:40am ET | $371.65 | 40 | $14,828.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $384.22 | 40 | $15,330.44 | $15,330.44 |
+$501.55 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $382.22 | 40 | $15,330.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $383.05 | 40 | $15,363.73 | $15,363.73 |
+$33.29 (+0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $383.14 | 40 | $15,363.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $384.95 | 40 | $15,436.51 | $15,436.51 |
+$72.78 (+0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 3:35pm ET | $400.03 | 39 | $15,436.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $402.51 | 39 | $15,532.21 | $15,532.21 |
+$95.70 (+0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $392.97 | 40 | $15,532.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $381.74 | 40 | $15,088.34 | $15,088.34 |
$-443.87 (-2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:45pm ET | $389.60 | 39 | $15,088.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $392.40 | 39 | $15,196.97 | $15,196.97 |
+$108.63 (+0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 11:25am ET | $444.49 | 34 | $15,196.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $487.60 | 34 | $16,670.89 | $16,670.89 |
+$1,473.92 (+9.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $492.46 | 34 | $16,670.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $499.89 | 34 | $16,922.41 | $16,922.41 |
+$251.52 (+1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $497.98 | 34 | $16,922.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $495.42 | 34 | $16,835.42 | $16,835.42 |
$-86.99 (-0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 12:50pm ET | $479.74 | 35 | $16,835.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $484.48 | 35 | $17,001.58 | $17,001.58 |
+$166.16 (+1.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $498.92 | 34 | $17,001.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $507.32 | 34 | $17,287.65 | $17,287.65 |
+$286.07 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $506.30 | 34 | $17,287.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $491.77 | 34 | $16,791.69 | $16,791.69 |
$-495.96 (-2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $493.00 | 34 | $16,791.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $497.12 | 34 | $16,931.91 | $16,931.91 |
+$140.22 (+0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $488.30 | 35 | $16,931.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $493.46 | 35 | $17,110.66 | $17,110.66 |
+$178.75 (+1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,110.66
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,110.66
Total Return:
+71.11%