MU Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 38 trades in period
+360.32%
Year to Date Return
$91,846.11
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$19,952.59
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
80
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
24.2/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
6.7/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
80.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 79.6
30-Day Momentum
31
+11.7%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 46.5
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-49 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,118
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
190 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$19,952.59
Current Value
$91,846.11
Period P&L
$71,893.52
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.41
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
26 /
12
Best Trade
+26.11%
Worst Trade
-19.85%
Avg Trade Return
+4.69%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$4,399,712.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$71,893.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$71,893.52
Gross Return
+360.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+360.32%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 190 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $19,952.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $289.31 | 70 | $20,204.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $343.35 | 70 | $23,978.72 | $23,978.72 |
+$3,774.02 (+18.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $328.58 | 73 | $23,978.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $338.18 | 73 | $24,679.36 | $24,679.36 |
+$700.64 (+2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $355.35 | 69 | $24,679.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $397.59 | 69 | $27,612.96 | $27,612.96 |
+$2,933.60 (+11.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.13 | 71 | $27,612.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $435.79 | 71 | $30,924.39 | $30,924.39 |
+$3,311.43 (+12.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 1:35pm ET | $423.31 | 73 | $30,924.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $379.75 | 73 | $27,742.17 | $27,742.17 |
$-3,182.22 (-10.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $375.74 | 74 | $27,742.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $410.35 | 74 | $30,297.14 | $30,297.14 |
+$2,554.97 (+9.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 3:05pm ET | $415.93 | 73 | $30,297.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $420.96 | 73 | $30,663.53 | $30,663.53 |
+$366.39 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $419.30 | 73 | $30,663.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $415.72 | 73 | $30,402.09 | $30,402.09 |
$-261.44 (-0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $401.40 | 76 | $30,402.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $397.02 | 76 | $30,070.35 | $30,070.35 |
$-331.74 (-1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 2:40pm ET | $380.92 | 79 | $30,070.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $418.56 | 79 | $33,041.70 | $33,041.70 |
+$2,971.35 (+9.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $418.01 | 79 | $33,041.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $461.84 | 79 | $36,506.25 | $36,506.25 |
+$3,464.55 (+10.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $439.00 | 83 | $36,506.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $382.09 | 83 | $31,773.74 | $31,773.74 |
$-4,732.51 (-13.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $354.46 | 90 | $31,773.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $337.61 | 90 | $30,263.76 | $30,263.76 |
$-1,509.98 (-4.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $370.13 | 82 | $30,263.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $377.70 | 82 | $30,882.72 | $30,882.72 |
+$618.96 (+2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $400.34 | 77 | $30,882.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $465.42 | 77 | $35,903.49 | $35,903.49 |
+$5,020.77 (+16.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $458.38 | 78 | $35,903.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $487.33 | 78 | $38,171.47 | $38,171.47 |
+$2,267.98 (+6.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $481.93 | 79 | $38,171.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $504.24 | 79 | $39,938.13 | $39,938.13 |
+$1,766.66 (+4.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $507.90 | 79 | $39,938.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $640.49 | 79 | $50,364.19 | $50,364.19 |
+$10,426.06 (+26.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $644.46 | 78 | $50,364.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $765.77 | 78 | $59,844.11 | $59,844.11 |
+$9,479.92 (+18.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $788.64 | 76 | $59,844.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $698.70 | 76 | $53,019.22 | $53,019.22 |
$-6,824.89 (-11.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $745.35 | 71 | $53,019.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $928.41 | 71 | $66,040.89 | $66,040.89 |
+$13,021.67 (+24.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 2:45pm ET | $928.00 | 71 | $66,040.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,064.08 | 71 | $75,724.99 | $75,724.99 |
+$9,684.10 (+14.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,013.98 | 75 | $75,724.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $935.89 | 75 | $69,893.16 | $69,893.16 |
$-5,831.83 (-7.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:10pm ET | $890.46 | 78 | $69,893.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,087.63 | 78 | $85,369.10 | $85,369.10 |
+$15,475.94 (+22.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $1,034.46 | 83 | $85,369.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,211.20 | 83 | $99,954.62 | $99,954.62 |
+$14,585.52 (+17.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $1,072.10 | 93 | $99,954.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,125.39 | 93 | $104,923.02 | $104,923.02 |
+$4,968.40 (+5.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,137.10 | 92 | $104,923.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $984.31 | 92 | $90,824.71 | $90,824.71 |
$-14,098.31 (-13.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $922.66 | 98 | $90,824.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $978.69 | 98 | $96,340.70 | $96,340.70 |
+$5,515.99 (+6.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $959.86 | 100 | $96,340.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $848.95 | 100 | $85,208.72 | $85,208.72 |
$-11,131.98 (-11.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $873.26 | 98 | $85,208.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $990.24 | 98 | $96,623.09 | $96,623.09 |
+$11,414.37 (+13.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $920.60 | 105 | $96,623.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $737.88 | 105 | $77,444.99 | $77,444.99 |
$-19,178.10 (-19.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $863.42 | 90 | $77,444.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $892.70 | 90 | $80,071.28 | $80,071.28 |
+$2,626.29 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $880.91 | 91 | $80,071.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $911.16 | 91 | $82,820.42 | $82,820.42 |
+$2,749.14 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $973.40 | 85 | $82,820.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $966.72 | 85 | $82,251.54 | $82,251.54 |
$-568.88 (-0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET | $924.79 | 89 | $82,251.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $932.67 | 89 | $82,952.39 | $82,952.39 |
+$700.85 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $936.65 | 89 | $82,952.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,014.95 | 89 | $89,886.86 | $89,886.86 |
+$6,934.47 (+8.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $1,020.40 | 88 | $89,886.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $924.29 | 88 | $81,420.81 | $81,420.81 |
$-8,466.05 (-9.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:00pm ET | $924.89 | 88 | $81,420.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,043.31 | 88 | $91,846.11 | $91,846.11 |
+$10,425.30 (+12.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$91,846.11
Net Profit/Loss:
+$81,846.11
Total Return:
+818.46%