Compendium › Wrecking Ball › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

+9.38%
Year to Date Return
$36,657.66
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$33,514.70
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:30

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

71
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.2/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 72.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 70.9

30-Day Momentum

30
+7.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.4 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-41 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$33,514.70
Current Value
$36,657.66
Period P&L
$3,142.96
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
15 / 13
Best Trade
+10.00%
Worst Trade
-9.29%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,986,565.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,142.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,142.96
Gross Return
+9.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $33,514.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $186.64 180 $33,538.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $188.81 180 $33,927.98 $33,927.98 +$389.92
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET $185.05 183 $33,927.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $185.81 183 $34,067.32 $34,067.32 +$139.34
(+0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:25am ET $181.68 188 $34,067.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $178.21 188 $33,417.57 $33,417.57 $-649.75
(-1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $179.47 186 $33,417.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $186.38 186 $34,704.22 $34,704.22 +$1,286.65
(+3.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET $188.37 184 $34,704.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $180.33 184 $33,223.86 $33,223.86 $-1,480.36
(-4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $171.46 194 $33,223.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $188.61 194 $36,547.02 $36,547.02 +$3,323.16
(+10.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET $187.30 195 $36,547.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $187.89 195 $36,661.17 $36,661.17 +$114.15
(+0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $191.01 192 $36,661.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $180.08 192 $34,563.34 $34,563.34 $-2,097.83
(-5.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 12:40pm ET $179.36 193 $34,563.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $184.76 193 $35,603.94 $35,603.94 +$1,040.60
(+3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 10:25am ET $182.09 196 $35,603.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.96 196 $35,579.50 $35,579.50 $-24.44
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $176.63 201 $35,579.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $175.31 201 $35,313.60 $35,313.60 $-265.90
(-0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 10:25am ET $174.82 202 $35,313.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $174.38 202 $35,224.72 $35,224.72 $-88.88
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $171.54 205 $35,224.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.10 205 $37,393.16 $37,393.16 +$2,168.44
(+6.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $210.27 178 $37,393.16 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $198.42 178 $35,285.83 $35,285.83 $-2,107.33
(-5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:40am ET $218.26 162 $35,285.83 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $225.23 162 $36,412.66 $36,412.66 +$1,126.83
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:30am ET $221.26 165 $36,412.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $219.50 165 $36,122.20 $36,122.20 $-290.46
(-0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:25am ET $209.92 172 $36,122.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $224.42 172 $38,617.30 $38,617.30 +$2,495.10
(+6.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:55am ET $226.12 171 $38,617.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $205.10 171 $35,028.31 $35,028.31 $-3,588.99
(-9.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $205.04 171 $35,028.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $205.13 171 $35,044.52 $35,044.52 +$16.21
(+0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $201.81 174 $35,044.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.72 174 $33,292.40 $33,292.40 $-1,752.12
(-5.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $193.65 172 $33,292.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $196.93 172 $33,856.30 $33,856.30 +$563.90
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:05am ET $200.07 169 $33,856.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $211.80 169 $35,841.28 $35,841.28 +$1,984.98
(+5.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $200.23 179 $35,841.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $212.06 179 $37,959.79 $37,959.79 +$2,118.51
(+5.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 3:05pm ET $205.10 185 $37,959.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $190.06 185 $35,176.19 $35,176.19 $-2,783.60
(-7.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $220.68 159 $35,176.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $214.75 159 $34,230.95 $34,230.95 $-945.24
(-2.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:25am ET $209.36 164 $34,230.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $228.05 164 $37,286.82 $37,286.82 +$3,055.87
(+8.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET $221.34 168 $37,286.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $224.40 168 $37,803.16 $37,803.16 +$516.34
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $218.80 173 $37,803.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $212.17 173 $36,657.66 $36,657.66 $-1,145.50
(-3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $36,657.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$26,657.66
Total Return: +266.58%
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