Compendium › Wrecking Ball › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 5 trades in period

+7.86%
Year to Date Return
$13,534.45
Current Value
80%
Win Rate
$12,547.65
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:12:26

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 63%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
24.7/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
13.1/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
7.7/10
Raw Quality 73.5/100
× Confidence 0.63 = 46.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (63%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,067
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,547.65
Current Value
$13,534.45
Period P&L
$986.80
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.14

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
4 / 1
Best Trade
+3.67%
Worst Trade
-0.31%
Avg Trade Return
+1.53%
Avg Hold Time
4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$129,433.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$986.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$986.80
Gross Return
+7.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $12,547.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET $681.11 18 $12,547.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $689.19 18 $12,696.41 $12,696.41 +$148.76
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $676.86 19 $12,696.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $692.09 19 $12,982.09 $12,982.09 +$285.68
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $674.54 19 $12,982.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $672.47 19 $12,942.35 $12,942.35 $-39.74
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $735.26 18 $12,942.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $741.66 18 $13,055.00 $13,055.00 +$112.65
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:50pm ET $730.83 18 $13,055.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $757.67 18 $13,534.45 $13,534.45 +$479.45
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,534.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,534.45
Total Return: +35.34%
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