XLK Wrecking Ball's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 34 trades in period
+22.21%
Year to Date Return
$20,788.39
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$17,010.38
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
73
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
6.2/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality
74.0/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 72.8
30-Day Momentum
19
+2.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 28.1
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-54 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,080
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$17,010.38
Current Value
$20,788.39
Period P&L
$3,778.01
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
22 /
12
Best Trade
+4.87%
Worst Trade
-7.49%
Avg Trade Return
+0.63%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,258,299.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,778.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,778.01
Gross Return
+22.21%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.21%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $17,010.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $144.06 | 118 | $17,010.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $146.63 | 118 | $17,313.84 | $17,313.84 |
+$303.46 (+1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $145.24 | 119 | $17,313.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $146.79 | 119 | $17,498.61 | $17,498.61 |
+$184.77 (+1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $144.66 | 121 | $17,498.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $145.61 | 121 | $17,613.53 | $17,613.53 |
+$114.92 (+0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $142.61 | 124 | $17,613.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $145.07 | 124 | $17,917.36 | $17,917.36 |
+$303.83 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.37 | 122 | $17,917.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $145.28 | 122 | $17,663.31 | $17,663.31 |
$-254.05 (-1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $139.44 | 127 | $17,663.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $141.06 | 127 | $17,868.52 | $17,868.52 |
+$205.21 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $141.98 | 126 | $17,868.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $139.58 | 126 | $17,566.48 | $17,566.48 |
$-302.04 (-1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $141.43 | 124 | $17,566.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $139.52 | 124 | $17,329.25 | $17,329.25 |
$-237.23 (-1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $138.73 | 125 | $17,329.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $139.77 | 125 | $17,459.16 | $17,459.16 |
+$129.91 (+0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $138.28 | 126 | $17,459.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $138.80 | 126 | $17,524.82 | $17,524.82 |
+$65.66 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $135.79 | 129 | $17,524.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $136.96 | 129 | $17,675.82 | $17,675.82 |
+$151.00 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $135.11 | 131 | $17,675.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $127.51 | 131 | $16,681.55 | $16,681.55 |
$-994.27 (-5.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:20pm ET | $134.47 | 124 | $16,681.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $136.78 | 124 | $16,968.11 | $16,968.11 |
+$286.56 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $155.40 | 109 | $16,968.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $160.57 | 109 | $17,532.06 | $17,532.06 |
+$563.95 (+3.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $157.39 | 111 | $17,532.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $162.05 | 111 | $18,051.15 | $18,051.15 |
+$519.09 (+3.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $169.63 | 106 | $18,051.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $177.89 | 106 | $18,930.14 | $18,930.14 |
+$878.99 (+4.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.18 | 107 | $18,930.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $173.25 | 107 | $18,615.32 | $18,615.32 |
$-314.82 (-1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $183.58 | 101 | $18,615.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $191.04 | 101 | $19,371.78 | $19,371.78 |
+$756.46 (+4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $194.86 | 99 | $19,371.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $180.26 | 99 | $17,920.34 | $17,920.34 |
$-1,451.44 (-7.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $183.16 | 98 | $17,920.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $183.19 | 98 | $17,923.28 | $17,923.28 |
+$2.94 (+0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $189.68 | 94 | $17,923.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $191.31 | 94 | $18,077.30 | $18,077.30 |
+$154.02 (+0.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.21 | 98 | $18,077.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $184.57 | 98 | $18,014.83 | $18,014.83 |
$-62.47 (-0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $179.12 | 101 | $18,014.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $185.65 | 101 | $18,671.58 | $18,671.58 |
+$656.75 (+3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.02 | 104 | $18,671.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $185.32 | 104 | $19,328.66 | $19,328.66 |
+$657.08 (+3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.98 | 106 | $19,328.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $181.63 | 106 | $19,186.58 | $19,186.58 |
$-142.08 (-0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $172.80 | 111 | $19,186.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $180.71 | 111 | $20,064.85 | $20,064.85 |
+$878.27 (+4.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $178.25 | 113 | $20,064.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $174.31 | 113 | $19,621.34 | $19,621.34 |
$-443.51 (-2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $169.92 | 115 | $19,621.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $175.28 | 115 | $20,240.28 | $20,240.28 |
+$618.94 (+3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.91 | 111 | $20,240.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $186.36 | 111 | $20,622.05 | $20,622.05 |
+$381.77 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.76 | 110 | $20,622.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $183.11 | 110 | $20,219.02 | $20,219.02 |
$-403.03 (-2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.45 | 112 | $20,219.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $182.88 | 112 | $20,490.74 | $20,490.74 |
+$271.72 (+1.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET | $186.53 | 110 | $20,490.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $183.66 | 110 | $20,175.46 | $20,175.46 |
$-315.28 (-1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.82 | 109 | $20,175.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $184.25 | 109 | $20,113.24 | $20,113.24 |
$-62.22 (-0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET | $183.48 | 110 | $20,113.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $189.64 | 110 | $20,788.39 | $20,788.39 |
+$675.15 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,788.39
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,788.39
Total Return:
+107.88%