Compendium › Yield Squeeze › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Yield Squeeze's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 5 trades in period

+1.89%
Year to Date Return
$11,175.72
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,968.01
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:38:59

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 61%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.2/35
Total Return
9.2/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
2.9/10
Raw Quality 29.5/100
× Confidence 0.61 = 18.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (61%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,059
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,968.01
Current Value
$11,175.72
Period P&L
$207.71
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+1.65%
Worst Trade
-1.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$111,945.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$207.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$207.71
Gross Return
+1.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.89%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Yield Squeeze had $10,968.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $365.58 30 $10,968.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $371.62 30 $11,149.22 $11,149.22 +$181.21
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $423.78 26 $11,149.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $423.89 26 $11,152.11 $11,152.11 +$2.89
(+0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $419.14 27 $11,152.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $425.05 27 $11,309.63 $11,309.63 +$157.52
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:35am ET $414.63 27 $11,309.63 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $413.90 27 $11,289.85 $11,289.85 $-19.78
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET $489.20 23 $11,289.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $484.26 23 $11,175.72 $11,175.72 $-114.13
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,175.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,175.72
Total Return: +11.76%
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