Compendium › Yield Squeeze › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Yield Squeeze's Analysis

to 2026-04-02 19:55:00+00 • 22 trades executed

+35.40%
2 Years Return
$13,539.77
Current Value
73%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-04-03 20:16:15

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
9
Extreme Fear
VIX
24.5
ELEVATED
10Y Yield
4.31%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
3.28
NORMAL
🌍 Kp Index
⛈️ 4.8
Severe
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Apr 3, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 63%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
24.8/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
12.3/15
Profit Factor
14.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 70.8/100
× Confidence 0.63 = 44.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (63%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
45,265
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-04-03 → 2026-04-02
Trading Days
521 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$13,539.77
Total P&L
$3,539.77
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.54

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
22
Winners / Losers
16 / 6
Best Trade
+8.34%
Worst Trade
-4.16%
Avg Trade Return
+1.42%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$551,661.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,539.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,539.77
Gross Return
+35.40%
Net Return (after fees)
+35.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 521 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Yield Squeeze had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 10:50am ET $242.00 41 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $262.18 41 $10,833.88 $10,833.88 +$833.88
(+8.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 10:25am ET $250.00 43 $10,833.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $251.22 43 $10,886.75 $10,886.75 +$52.87
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $261.31 42 $10,886.75 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $268.68 42 $11,193.80 $11,193.80 +$307.05
(+2.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY May 23, 2025 9:30am ET $283.25 40 $11,193.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $293.75 40 $11,608.75 $11,608.75 +$414.95
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 27, 2025 2:25pm ET $315.76 37 $11,608.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2025 3:55pm ET $318.80 37 $11,720.70 $11,720.70 +$111.95
(+1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2025 9:30am ET $316.20 37 $11,720.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $311.71 37 $11,554.27 $11,554.27 $-166.43
(-1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 18, 2025 9:30am ET $306.19 38 $11,554.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2025 3:55pm ET $303.10 38 $11,437.67 $11,437.67 $-116.60
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $291.38 39 $11,437.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2025 3:55pm ET $298.58 39 $11,720.50 $11,720.50 +$282.83
(+2.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 15, 2025 10:35am ET $304.91 38 $11,720.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2025 3:55pm ET $307.14 38 $11,806.36 $11,806.36 +$85.86
(+0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2025 9:40am ET $304.68 39 $11,806.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2025 3:55pm ET $319.29 39 $12,372.50 $12,372.50 +$566.14
(+4.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET $323.04 38 $12,372.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $323.70 38 $12,397.78 $12,397.78 +$25.28
(+0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2025 10:15am ET $324.29 38 $12,397.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $335.99 38 $12,845.08 $12,845.08 +$447.30
(+3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $336.43 38 $12,845.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $341.69 38 $13,046.10 $13,046.10 +$201.02
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Oct 6, 2025 10:05am ET $326.61 40 $13,046.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 7, 2025 3:55pm ET $327.82 40 $13,094.43 $13,094.43 +$48.33
(+0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:05am ET $323.68 40 $13,094.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 13, 2025 3:55pm ET $323.13 40 $13,072.18 $13,072.18 $-22.25
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Oct 16, 2025 10:10am ET $327.01 40 $13,072.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $346.51 40 $13,851.90 $13,851.90 +$779.72
(+6.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 11:20am ET $363.56 38 $13,851.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 3:55pm ET $368.55 38 $14,042.02 $14,042.02 +$190.12
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:20am ET $348.14 40 $14,042.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 3:55pm ET $352.87 40 $14,232.80 $14,232.80 +$190.78
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 9:40am ET $366.46 39 $14,232.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $363.90 39 $14,133.37 $14,133.37 $-99.43
(-0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $376.96 37 $14,133.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $375.62 37 $14,083.32 $14,083.32 $-50.05
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:15pm ET $353.24 40 $14,083.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $354.33 40 $14,126.78 $14,126.78 +$43.46
(+0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $352.32 40 $14,126.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $337.68 40 $13,539.77 $13,539.77 $-587.01
(-4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,539.77
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,539.77
Total Return: +35.40%
Back to Yield Squeeze