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I understand that past performance does not guarantee future results and that trading involves risk of loss. Simulated results may not reflect real trading outcomes. Quality Scores and Momentum indicators are based on backtested simulations, not predictions.

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Danny Dip

The Optimist

🛒 Swing Trader 📅 226 years old (Born 1800)

"A 3% pullback in a bull market is just the universe giving you a second chance to buy what you missed."

Spry man of perhaps 70, but his eyes contain centuries. Wears a peculiar mix of Regency-era waistcoat over a modern hoodie, as if he can't decide which century he belongs to.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

Jun 21, 2024 → Jun 21, 2026 (730d)

📊 Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

🎯 Asset: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Danny Dip $10,000 and let him trade 12 crypto symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$2,642

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,000 ($-7,358)

-73.58%

2-Year ROI

40.3%

Win Rate

4,412

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume

0 trades

Stock Fees

✓ Commission FREE

Crypto Volume

$47,762,760

4,412 trades

Crypto Fees

$119,407

0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy 3% dips, target 5% profit

Waits for quality assets to pull back 3% from recent highs, then enters with a 5% profit target. Uses trailing stops to protect gains during extended runs.

🎯 Best Suited For

Bull markets and quality stocks

"Dips are just discounts with a deadline."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

In uptrending markets (which is most of market history), pullbacks are temporary. Institutions use them to accumulate. Danny's 3% threshold filters out normal volatility.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-danny-simulation.php

📊 Recent High (Lookback)

                        Recent High = MAX(Closet-n ... Closet)                    

                        Finds the highest closing price over the lookback period to measure the dip from.                    

                            Lookback Period = 20 bars                        

                            Recent High = max(array_slice(closes, -20))                        

                            Uses closing prices only (not highs)

                    📁 getRecentHigh() 
                    @ lines 166-171                

📊 Dip Percentage Calculation

                        Dip % = ((Current Price - Recent High) ÷ Recent High) × 100                    

                        Measures how far the current price has fallen from the recent high. Negative values indicate a dip.                    

                            Current Price = latest closing price                        

                            Recent High = MAX of last 20 closes                        

                            Example: Price=$97, High=$100 → Dip = -3%

📊 Entry Signal (Buy the Dip)

                        Signal = Dip % ≤ -3%                    

                        When price drops 3% or more from the 20-bar high, Danny sees a buying opportunity.                    

                            DIP_THRESHOLD_PCT = 3.0%                        

                            Entry triggers when: dipPct <= -DIP_THRESHOLD_PCT                        

                            Position size: 100% capital (fractional for crypto, whole shares for stocks)

📈 Entry Signal (Buy the Dip)

→

📉 Exit Conditions

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 14 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        DIP_LOOKBACK:
                        20
                    

                        DIP_THRESHOLD_PCT:
                        3%
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        3%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        14
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Baron Rothschild during the Napoleonic Wars

The legend says Baron Rothschild made a fortune during the panic following the Battle of Waterloo in 1815. His alleged advice: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Jun 21, 2024 → Jun 21, 2026 (730 days)

📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns

📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.

75+ Elite 60+ Good 40+ Fair <40 Weak

⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.

75+ Hot 60+ Active 40+ Moderate <40 Quiet

Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.

⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →

Rank	Symbol	Score	Mom	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	DOTUSD ₿	—	—	-0.41%	🔄 $10,095	$10,632	14	43%	$739	+$537	-99.1%	14.0h	1	Feb 6, 2026
2	BTCUSD ₿	6	—	-29.33%	$10,000	$7,067	78	44%	$4,410	-$2,933	-38.9%	1.5d	✓	-
3	SHIBUSD ₿	5	20	-70.45%	$10,000	$2,955	392	42%	$36,713	-$7,045	-94.1%	12.4h	✓	-
4	LTCUSD ₿	5	3	-71.58%	$10,000	$2,842	337	41%	$18,301	-$7,158	-84.0%	16.6h	✓	-
5	ETHUSD ₿	4	3	-72.35%	$10,000	$2,765	218	39%	$9,119	-$7,235	-77.9%	1.0d	✓	-
6	XRPUSD ₿	4	1	-72.49%	$10,000	$2,751	390	43%	$18,736	-$7,249	-82.9%	14.1h	✓	-
7	SOLUSD ₿	4	9	-87.88%	$10,000	$1,212	346	39%	$12,298	-$8,788	-92.3%	14.0h	✓	-
8	PEPEUSD ₿	3	10	-92.53%	$10,000	$747	812	38%	$455,991	-$9,253	-99.8%	7.8h	✓	-
9	DOGEUSD ₿	4	3	-93.00%	$10,000	$700	483	41%	$19,239	-$9,300	-94.5%	12.8h	✓	-
10	LINKUSD ₿	2	9	-96.19%	$10,000	$381	423	39%	$7,320	-$9,619	-96.9%	14.5h	✓	-
11	AVAXUSD ₿	2	10	-98.18%	$10,000	$182	403	38%	$6,606	-$9,818	-97.8%	14.0h	✓	-
12	UNIUSD ₿	4	10	-98.60%	$10,000	$140	516	38%	$13,149	-$9,860	-98.8%	12.2h	✓	-

👤 Personality

Eternally bullish, impossibly optimistic. Has seen Napoleon's wars, the Long Depression, the Great Depression, 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020—and made money in each recovery.