Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:30:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

2
-11.4%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,728.46
Current Value
$6,710.57
Period P&L
$-1,017.87
Max Drawdown
-42.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.58

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+5.12%
Worst Trade
-7.25%
Avg Trade Return
-2.35%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$71,978.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,017.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,017.87
Gross Return
-13.17%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.17%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,728.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 3:15pm ET $265.57 28 $7,435.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $279.18 28 $7,817.04 $7,956.22 +$381.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $287.54 27 $7,763.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $266.70 27 $7,200.90 $7,393.50 $-562.72
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 28 $7,193.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:35pm ET $249.01 28 $6,972.42 $7,172.72 $-220.78
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:35pm ET $263.54 27 $7,115.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $254.30 27 $6,866.23 $6,923.37 $-249.35
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $246.90 28 $6,913.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 1:25pm ET $239.30 28 $6,700.40 $6,710.57 $-212.80
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,710.57
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,289.43
Total Return: -32.89%
Back to Marcus Reversal