Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:36

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.4 neutral
20d Trend
-15.2%
5d Trend
-20.7%
EMA20 Dist
-16.9%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.8/35
Total Return
19.0/25
Win Rate
2.0/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 45.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 45.0

30-Day Momentum

55
+16.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 74.3 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$26,056.21
Current Value
$29,372.20
Period P&L
$3,315.98
Max Drawdown
-43.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.59

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+7.26%
Worst Trade
-4.21%
Avg Trade Return
+2.75%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$317,152.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,315.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,315.98
Gross Return
+12.73%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.73%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $26,056.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:45am ET $460.91 54 $24,889.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET $485.17 54 $26,199.18 $26,476.88 +$1,310.04
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $472.70 56 $26,471.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $457.10 56 $25,597.32 $25,603.00 $-873.88
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $443.55 57 $25,282.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $468.24 57 $26,689.80 $27,010.72 +$1,407.72
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $507.13 53 $26,877.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $485.79 53 $25,746.61 $25,879.43 $-1,131.29
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET $504.61 51 $25,735.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $534.35 51 $27,251.85 $27,396.17 +$1,516.74
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:55am ET $544.36 50 $27,217.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $583.88 50 $29,194.00 $29,372.20 +$1,976.03
(+7.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $29,372.20
Net Profit/Loss: +$19,372.20
Total Return: +193.72%
Back to Marcus Reversal