Compendium › Marcus Reversal › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-26 to present • 3 trades in period

-5.46%
Last Month Return
$11,281.43
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$11,933.00
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-26 01:40:39

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
9.5/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 17.2/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 16.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-4.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-26 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,933.00
Current Value
$11,281.43
Period P&L
$-651.57
Max Drawdown
-28.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+6.90%
Worst Trade
-7.74%
Avg Trade Return
-1.30%
Avg Hold Time
10d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$64,594.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-651.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$-651.57
Gross Return
-5.46%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,933.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 11:40am ET $437.13 27 $11,802.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $403.29 27 $10,888.83 $10,901.40 $-913.68
(-7.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $390.93 27 $10,555.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET $378.92 27 $10,230.71 $10,576.86 $-324.54
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET $378.01 27 $10,206.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $404.10 27 $10,910.70 $11,281.43 +$704.57
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,281.43
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,281.43
Total Return: +12.81%
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