Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:18

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 19.6/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 19.3

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.5%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,854.31
Current Value
$11,770.74
Period P&L
$-1,083.57
Max Drawdown
-27.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.49

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+5.27%
Worst Trade
-4.59%
Avg Trade Return
-1.74%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$118,336.23
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,083.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,083.57
Gross Return
-8.43%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,854.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:35am ET $363.19 35 $12,711.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET $352.28 35 $12,329.78 $12,484.69 $-381.87
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $367.74 33 $12,135.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $350.86 33 $11,578.38 $11,927.65 $-557.04
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 11:35am ET $355.34 33 $11,726.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET $344.27 33 $11,360.75 $11,562.18 $-365.47
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $341.63 33 $11,273.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $359.63 33 $11,867.63 $12,156.18 +$594.00
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET $359.67 33 $11,869.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET $347.99 33 $11,483.67 $11,770.74 $-385.44
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,770.74
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,770.74
Total Return: +17.71%
Back to Marcus Reversal