Compendium › Marcus Reversal › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-09 to present • 2 trades in period

+1.67%
Last Month Return
$14,923.37
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$14,678.19
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-09 06:33:25

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 8, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.2/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 32.2/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 28.3

30-Day Momentum

37
+10.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 60.6 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-09 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,678.19
Current Value
$14,923.37
Period P&L
$245.18
Max Drawdown
-27.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
1 / 1
Best Trade
+5.13%
Worst Trade
-3.27%
Avg Trade Return
+0.93%
Avg Hold Time
6.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$59,305.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$245.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$245.18
Gross Return
+1.67%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.67%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,678.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET $313.11 46 $14,402.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $329.18 46 $15,142.28 $15,417.64 +$739.45
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $328.86 46 $15,127.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $318.11 46 $14,633.29 $14,923.37 $-494.27
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,923.37
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,923.37
Total Return: +49.23%
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