Compendium › Marcus Reversal › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-11.86%
Last Month Return
$12,834.47
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$14,561.51
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:19:13

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
12.2/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 24.4/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 22.6

30-Day Momentum

1
-10.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,561.51
Current Value
$12,834.47
Period P&L
$-1,727.04
Max Drawdown
-27.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-2.17

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
0 / 4
Best Trade
-0.55%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
-2.66%
Avg Hold Time
12.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$108,088.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,727.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,727.04
Gross Return
-11.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,561.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 1:45pm ET $334.79 42 $14,060.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:45pm ET $332.96 42 $13,984.32 $14,204.30 $-76.65
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET $331.39 42 $13,918.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $320.43 42 $13,458.06 $13,744.19 $-460.11
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $324.87 42 $13,644.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $313.46 42 $13,165.53 $13,265.18 $-479.01
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $312.95 42 $13,143.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:05am ET $302.70 42 $12,713.19 $12,834.47 $-430.71
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,834.47
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,834.47
Total Return: +28.34%
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