Compendium › Marcus Reversal › BLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 3 trades in period

-9.07%
Last Month Return
$14,280.47
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$15,704.62
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.7/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 33.5/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 30.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-7.2%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,704.62
Current Value
$14,280.47
Period P&L
$-1,424.15
Max Drawdown
-17.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-3.74

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
-1.61%
Worst Trade
-3.14%
Avg Trade Return
-2.59%
Avg Hold Time
13.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$85,248.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,424.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,424.15
Gross Return
-9.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,704.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET $1,135.28 13 $14,758.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:45am ET $1,116.99 13 $14,520.87 $15,154.46 $-237.77
(-1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,121.37 13 $14,577.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $1,086.12 13 $14,119.56 $14,696.21 $-458.25
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $1,064.91 13 $13,843.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,032.93 13 $13,428.09 $14,280.47 $-415.74
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,280.47
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,280.47
Total Return: +42.80%
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