Compendium › Marcus Reversal › COP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COP
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-5.43%
Last Month Return
$11,108.77
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$11,746.37
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:26:26

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
58.1 neutral
20d Trend
+7.6%
5d Trend
-0.6%
EMA20 Dist
+2.4%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
80%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
9.0/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 16.8/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 16.0

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.4%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,746.37
Current Value
$11,108.77
Period P&L
$-637.61
Max Drawdown
-20.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.36

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.11%
Worst Trade
-3.88%
Avg Trade Return
-1.32%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$91,798.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-637.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$-637.61
Gross Return
-5.43%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,746.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $119.07 98 $11,669.35 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $114.95 98 $11,265.10 $11,342.13 $-404.25
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 10:50am ET $115.13 98 $11,282.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:50am ET $121.01 98 $11,859.22 $11,918.61 +$576.48
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 12:35pm ET $118.94 100 $11,894.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $114.33 100 $11,433.00 $11,457.61 $-461.00
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $111.49 102 $11,371.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:10am ET $108.07 102 $11,023.14 $11,108.77 $-348.84
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,108.77
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,108.77
Total Return: +11.09%
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