Compendium › Marcus Reversal › COST
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COST
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-2.11%
Last Month Return
$15,137.31
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$15,463.01
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:28:43

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
68.2 neutral
20d Trend
+5.1%
5d Trend
+5.5%
EMA20 Dist
+3.1%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.1/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 34.2/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 31.1

30-Day Momentum

1
-4.8%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,463.01
Current Value
$15,137.31
Period P&L
$-325.69
Max Drawdown
-19.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.31

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.19%
Worst Trade
-3.59%
Avg Trade Return
-1.15%
Avg Hold Time
6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$120,095.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-325.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-325.69
Gross Return
-2.11%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COST Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,463.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 9:45am ET $1,038.32 15 $15,574.87 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:50am ET $1,001.01 15 $15,015.08 $15,349.30 $-559.80
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:50am ET $1,004.57 15 $15,068.55 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:35am ET $973.12 15 $14,596.80 $14,877.55 $-471.75
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:30am ET $947.62 15 $14,214.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET $996.83 15 $14,952.38 $15,615.63 +$738.08
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $973.50 16 $15,576.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:00am ET $943.60 16 $15,097.68 $15,137.31 $-478.32
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,137.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,137.31
Total Return: +51.37%
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