Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:36:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.8 oversold
20d Trend
-22.1%
5d Trend
-11.2%
EMA20 Dist
-13.2%
ATR%
4.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

3
-4.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,167.92
Current Value
$7,795.45
Period P&L
$-372.48
Max Drawdown
-48.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
2 / 4
Best Trade
+5.22%
Worst Trade
-4.68%
Avg Trade Return
-0.70%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$95,361.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-372.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-372.48
Gross Return
-4.56%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,167.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $205.91 39 $8,030.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $199.45 39 $7,778.55 $7,915.80 $-252.13
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:50am ET $244.69 32 $7,830.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET $257.47 32 $8,239.04 $8,324.76 +$408.96
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 1:25pm ET $260.67 31 $8,080.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $248.48 31 $7,702.90 $7,946.89 $-377.87
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:10am ET $248.68 31 $7,709.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $261.29 31 $8,099.84 $8,337.64 +$390.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $250.79 33 $8,276.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $242.69 33 $8,008.77 $8,070.34 $-267.30
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $240.62 33 $7,940.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET $232.29 33 $7,665.57 $7,795.45 $-274.89
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,795.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,204.55
Total Return: -22.05%
Back to Marcus Reversal