Compendium › Marcus Reversal › DIS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DIS
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 4 trades in period

-4.85%
Last Month Return
$10,754.61
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$11,303.06
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:20:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.1/35
Total Return
7.7/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 14.4/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 13.4

30-Day Momentum

1
-4.8%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,303.06
Current Value
$10,754.61
Period P&L
$-548.47
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.32

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.11%
Worst Trade
-3.64%
Avg Trade Return
-1.18%
Avg Hold Time
5.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$86,826.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-548.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$-548.47
Gross Return
-4.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,303.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:10pm ET $111.13 101 $11,224.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:40am ET $107.63 101 $10,870.63 $10,949.58 $-353.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $107.40 101 $10,847.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET $104.14 101 $10,518.14 $10,620.32 $-329.26
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET $103.25 102 $10,532.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $108.53 102 $11,070.06 $11,158.37 +$538.05
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $107.61 103 $11,083.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $103.69 103 $10,680.07 $10,754.61 $-403.76
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,754.61
Net Profit/Loss: +$754.61
Total Return: +7.55%
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