Compendium › Marcus Reversal › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 8 trades in period

+3.57%
Last Month Return
$360.20
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$216.03
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:07:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

32
+8.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 38.8 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,978
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
32 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$216.03
Current Value
$360.20
Period P&L
$7.72
Max Drawdown
-98.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+6.10%
Worst Trade
-3.65%
Avg Trade Return
+1.13%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$5,585.55
Estimated Fees
$13.96
Gross P&L
$7.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6.25
Gross Return
+3.57%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.89%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 32 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $216.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 4:35am ET $2,417.83 0 $331.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 5:25am ET $2,540.16 0 $348.55 $348.55 +$15.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 6:30am ET $2,510.19 0 $348.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $2,418.56 0 $335.83 $335.83 $-14.43
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $2,429.96 0 $335.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET $2,578.15 0 $356.31 $356.31 +$18.75
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:10am ET $2,606.50 0 $356.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 4:50pm ET $2,528.29 0 $345.62 $345.62 $-12.45
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 6:10pm ET $2,511.32 0 $345.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET $2,433.00 0 $334.84 $334.84 $-12.48
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET $2,417.31 0 $334.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $2,554.74 0 $353.88 $353.88 +$17.31
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 7:25pm ET $2,615.10 0 $353.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:55am ET $2,747.31 0 $371.77 $371.77 +$16.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.6d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $2,736.43 0 $371.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:30am ET $2,651.29 0 $360.20 $360.20 $-13.40
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $360.20
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,639.80
Total Return: -96.40%
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