Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:31:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

16
+3.1%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.3 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,237.77
Current Value
$8,197.14
Period P&L
$-40.64
Max Drawdown
-45.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
3 / 6
Best Trade
+8.12%
Worst Trade
-3.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.05%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$149,946.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-40.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-40.64
Gross Return
-0.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,237.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $110.17 74 $8,152.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $106.56 74 $7,885.07 $7,970.27 $-267.51
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:10am ET $101.51 78 $7,917.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:30am ET $106.60 78 $8,314.62 $8,367.11 +$396.84
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $105.05 79 $8,298.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $113.58 79 $8,972.82 $9,040.98 +$673.87
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:50pm ET $123.04 73 $8,981.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $119.14 73 $8,697.10 $8,756.52 $-284.46
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:00pm ET $116.12 75 $8,709.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $112.50 75 $8,437.50 $8,485.02 $-271.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $112.58 75 $8,443.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $109.12 75 $8,184.00 $8,225.15 $-259.87
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $108.76 75 $8,157.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 10:25am ET $105.48 75 $7,911.00 $7,979.15 $-246.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 11:05am ET $106.65 74 $7,892.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $113.57 74 $8,404.55 $8,491.23 +$512.08
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $124.12 68 $8,440.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $119.79 68 $8,146.06 $8,197.14 $-294.09
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,197.14
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,802.86
Total Return: -18.03%
Back to Marcus Reversal