Compendium › Marcus Reversal › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-1.82%
Last Month Return
$13,457.24
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$13,706.65
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:20:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.7/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 30.1/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 29.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,706.65
Current Value
$13,457.24
Period P&L
$-249.42
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+5.06%
Worst Trade
-3.32%
Avg Trade Return
-0.49%
Avg Hold Time
10.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$83,179.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-249.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-249.42
Gross Return
-1.82%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,706.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $230.67 59 $13,609.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $242.35 59 $14,298.36 $14,373.66 +$688.83
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $246.20 58 $14,279.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $238.03 58 $13,805.98 $13,900.04 $-473.62
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $234.15 59 $13,814.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET $226.64 59 $13,371.76 $13,457.24 $-442.80
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,457.24
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,457.24
Total Return: +34.57%
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