Compendium › Marcus Reversal › ISRG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ISRG
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

+4.99%
Last Month Return
$9,477.34
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,027.06
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:07:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 4.4/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 4.3

30-Day Momentum

18
+5.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.9 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,027.06
Current Value
$9,477.34
Period P&L
$450.30
Max Drawdown
-35.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-3.15%
Avg Trade Return
+1.30%
Avg Hold Time
5.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$69,580.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$450.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$450.30
Gross Return
+4.99%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.99%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,027.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:05pm ET $379.48 23 $8,727.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:35am ET $367.70 23 $8,457.10 $8,750.70 $-270.88
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $367.51 23 $8,452.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:25am ET $355.95 23 $8,186.74 $8,484.70 $-266.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:00am ET $352.21 24 $8,453.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $374.04 24 $8,976.96 $9,008.62 +$523.92
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $372.03 24 $8,928.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET $391.56 24 $9,397.44 $9,477.34 +$468.72
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,477.34
Net Profit/Loss: $-522.66
Total Return: -5.23%
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