Compendium › Marcus Reversal › JNJ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
JNJ
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-06-26 to present • 4 trades in period

+3.65%
Last Month Return
$16,726.10
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$16,137.72
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:35:09

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
17.1/35
Total Return
15.2/25
Win Rate
5.1/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 49.2/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 43.5

30-Day Momentum

15
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.0 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$16,137.72
Current Value
$16,726.10
Period P&L
$588.41
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.14%
Worst Trade
-3.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.98%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$130,147.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$588.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$588.41
Gross Return
+3.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,137.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:00am ET $255.31 63 $16,084.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $268.27 63 $16,900.70 $16,953.85 +$816.16
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:30am ET $266.14 63 $16,766.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET $258.08 63 $16,259.04 $16,446.07 $-507.78
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $257.62 63 $16,230.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $249.25 63 $15,702.75 $15,918.76 $-527.31
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 11:50am ET $249.18 63 $15,698.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET $261.99 63 $16,505.37 $16,726.10 +$807.34
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,726.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,726.10
Total Return: +67.26%
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