Compendium › Marcus Reversal › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-9.18%
Last Month Return
$12,317.70
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$13,563.31
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:20:59

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.2/35
Total Return
11.5/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 20.2/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 19.5

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.6%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-19 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,563.31
Current Value
$12,317.70
Period P&L
$-1,245.62
Max Drawdown
-36.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-9.89

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
-3.01%
Worst Trade
-3.84%
Avg Trade Return
-3.40%
Avg Hold Time
6.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$75,282.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,245.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,245.62
Gross Return
-9.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.18%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,563.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET $1,262.55 10 $12,625.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $1,214.02 10 $12,140.20 $13,133.57 $-485.25
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $1,183.19 11 $13,015.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET $1,143.60 11 $12,579.60 $12,698.08 $-435.49
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET $1,150.12 11 $12,651.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 2:45pm ET $1,115.54 11 $12,270.94 $12,317.70 $-380.38
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,317.70
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,317.70
Total Return: +23.18%
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