Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:20:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

4
-19.6%
30d Return
14%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$4,122.73
Current Value
$3,112.23
Period P&L
$-1,010.50
Max Drawdown
-58.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.94

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
1 / 8
Best Trade
+5.03%
Worst Trade
-8.15%
Avg Trade Return
-3.03%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$65,351.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,010.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,010.50
Gross Return
-24.51%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.51%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $4,122.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 11:45am ET $11.50 358 $4,117.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET $11.13 358 $3,985.22 $3,990.95 $-131.78
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET $11.87 336 $3,988.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $11.49 336 $3,862.32 $3,864.95 $-126.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $11.97 322 $3,854.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $11.58 322 $3,728.76 $3,739.37 $-125.58
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:50am ET $10.44 358 $3,735.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $10.03 358 $3,590.74 $3,594.38 $-144.99
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:00pm ET $11.44 314 $3,590.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $12.01 314 $3,771.17 $3,774.96 +$180.58
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:10pm ET $11.89 317 $3,768.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET $11.37 317 $3,604.29 $3,611.17 $-163.79
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $12.02 300 $3,606.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $11.04 300 $3,312.00 $3,317.14 $-294.03
(-8.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $11.27 294 $3,311.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $10.90 294 $3,204.60 $3,209.83 $-107.31
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:40am ET $13.31 241 $3,208.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 12:10pm ET $12.91 241 $3,111.31 $3,112.23 $-97.60
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,112.23
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,887.77
Total Return: -68.88%
Back to Marcus Reversal