Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 3 trades in period

-10.86%
Last Month Return
$9,721.12
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$10,905.32
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:57:11

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 7.6/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 6.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,905.32
Current Value
$9,721.12
Period P&L
$-1,184.20
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-331.66

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
-3.14%
Worst Trade
-3.16%
Avg Trade Return
-3.15%
Avg Hold Time
11.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$60,757.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,184.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,184.20
Gross Return
-10.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,905.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 3:20pm ET $265.70 40 $10,628.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:05am ET $257.30 40 $10,292.20 $10,357.52 $-335.80
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:05am ET $256.62 40 $10,264.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 10:05am ET $248.57 40 $9,942.80 $10,035.52 $-322.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:55pm ET $249.30 40 $9,972.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET $241.44 40 $9,657.60 $9,721.12 $-314.40
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,721.12
Net Profit/Loss: $-278.88
Total Return: -2.79%
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