Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MS
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 2 trades in period

-6.36%
Last Month Return
$12,007.42
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$12,823.10
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:14:14

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.4/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 20.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 20.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,823.10
Current Value
$12,007.42
Period P&L
$-815.68
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-62.76

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
0 / 2
Best Trade
-3.23%
Worst Trade
-3.33%
Avg Trade Return
-3.28%
Avg Hold Time
13.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$48,924.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-815.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-815.68
Gross Return
-6.36%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,823.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $214.65 59 $12,664.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $207.50 59 $12,242.50 $12,401.25 $-421.85
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $206.88 59 $12,205.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:15am ET $200.21 59 $11,812.10 $12,007.42 $-393.83
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,007.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,007.42
Total Return: +20.07%
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