Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:02:56

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

69
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.1/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
3.3/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 69.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 69.0

30-Day Momentum

63
+18.6%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
5
Trades
4.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 89.3 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$46,975.57
Current Value
$55,706.46
Period P&L
$8,730.92
Max Drawdown
-27.8%
Sharpe Ratio
1.08

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
4 / 1
Best Trade
+5.43%
Worst Trade
-3.01%
Avg Trade Return
+3.57%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$497,860.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$8,730.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$8,730.92
Gross Return
+18.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $46,975.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 1:25pm ET $924.90 50 $46,245.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $974.49 50 $48,724.50 $49,455.04 +$2,479.50
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $1,016.13 48 $48,774.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:15am ET $985.52 48 $47,304.96 $47,985.76 $-1,469.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $909.68 52 $47,303.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $955.18 52 $49,669.36 $50,351.76 +$2,366.00
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 11:20am ET $990.90 50 $49,545.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,044.75 50 $52,237.50 $53,044.26 +$2,692.50
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $1,033.28 51 $52,697.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:15pm ET $1,085.48 51 $55,359.49 $55,706.46 +$2,662.20
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $55,706.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$45,706.46
Total Return: +457.06%
Back to Marcus Reversal