Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:24:52

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 4.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

4
-14.5%
30d Return
14%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,050.78
Current Value
$5,984.33
Period P&L
$-1,066.48
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.73

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
1 / 6
Best Trade
+5.08%
Worst Trade
-4.13%
Avg Trade Return
-2.17%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$94,236.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,066.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,066.48
Gross Return
-15.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,050.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:25am ET $5.22 1,341 $6,993.32
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:25am ET $5.48 1,341 $7,348.68 $7,352.53 +$355.36
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 11:40am ET $5.58 1,317 $7,348.73
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $5.38 1,317 $7,085.46 $7,089.26 $-263.27
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 11:00am ET $5.91 1,198 $7,086.17
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:50pm ET $5.73 1,198 $6,866.22 $6,869.31 $-219.95
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $5.58 1,230 $6,865.74
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:45am ET $5.41 1,230 $6,654.30 $6,657.87 $-211.44
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:45am ET $5.50 1,210 $6,655.00
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $5.32 1,210 $6,437.32 $6,440.19 $-217.68
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:20pm ET $5.19 1,240 $6,435.60
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $5.03 1,240 $6,237.20 $6,241.79 $-198.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 11:20am ET $5.09 1,226 $6,240.34
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $4.88 1,226 $5,982.88 $5,984.33 $-257.46
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,984.33
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,015.67
Total Return: -40.16%
Back to Marcus Reversal