Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:32

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 33.0

30-Day Momentum

18
+3.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.6 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$18,519.93
Current Value
$18,637.06
Period P&L
$117.04
Max Drawdown
-43.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+5.32%
Worst Trade
-4.17%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$264,866.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$117.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$117.04
Gross Return
+0.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.63%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $18,519.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 10:55am ET $211.30 87 $18,383.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $222.06 87 $19,319.22 $19,455.71 +$935.69
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $224.19 86 $19,280.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 2:55pm ET $216.93 86 $18,656.41 $18,831.78 $-623.93
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:55pm ET $218.32 86 $18,775.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $229.93 86 $19,773.97 $19,829.80 +$998.02
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:55pm ET $230.15 86 $19,793.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $220.55 86 $18,967.30 $19,003.77 $-826.03
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:00am ET $219.42 86 $18,870.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 86 $18,163.20 $18,296.85 $-706.92
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $212.22 86 $18,250.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $222.98 86 $19,176.28 $19,222.21 +$925.36
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 2:15pm ET $229.16 83 $19,020.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $222.12 83 $18,435.55 $18,637.06 $-585.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,637.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,637.06
Total Return: +86.37%
Back to Marcus Reversal