Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:54:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 5.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.4

30-Day Momentum

29
+8.2%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.0 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,083.47
Current Value
$9,136.16
Period P&L
$52.69
Max Drawdown
-51.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+6.47%
Worst Trade
-7.40%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$152,829.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$52.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$52.69
Gross Return
+0.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,083.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET $142.18 63 $8,957.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $150.95 63 $9,509.85 $9,591.57 +$552.51
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET $149.23 64 $9,550.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $143.98 64 $9,214.72 $9,255.89 $-335.68
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $144.00 64 $9,216.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:20am ET $151.21 64 $9,677.44 $9,717.33 +$461.44
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:00pm ET $157.56 61 $9,611.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $167.75 61 $10,232.75 $10,338.92 +$621.59
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $162.68 63 $10,249.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $157.75 63 $9,938.25 $10,028.02 $-310.90
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:05am ET $152.79 65 $9,931.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $141.48 65 $9,196.20 $9,293.19 $-734.83
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET $141.14 65 $9,174.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $148.68 65 $9,664.20 $9,783.29 +$490.10
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $146.63 66 $9,677.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $136.82 66 $9,030.12 $9,136.16 $-647.13
(-6.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,136.16
Net Profit/Loss: $-863.84
Total Return: -8.64%
Back to Marcus Reversal