Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:56:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.6/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 30.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 29.6

30-Day Momentum

6
-0.1%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,589.83
Current Value
$15,422.40
Period P&L
$-167.45
Max Drawdown
-29.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
3 / 5
Best Trade
+5.88%
Worst Trade
-3.26%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$240,813.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-167.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-167.45
Gross Return
-1.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,589.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET $351.76 43 $15,125.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:35pm ET $340.29 43 $14,632.47 $14,938.83 $-493.21
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $338.66 44 $14,901.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $358.56 44 $15,776.64 $15,814.43 +$875.60
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $376.93 41 $15,454.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:50am ET $365.41 41 $14,981.81 $15,342.11 $-472.32
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:50am ET $375.23 40 $15,009.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:55am ET $363.46 40 $14,538.40 $14,871.11 $-471.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $330.38 45 $14,867.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $347.31 45 $15,628.79 $15,632.80 +$761.69
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:40pm ET $377.13 41 $15,462.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $365.11 41 $14,969.71 $15,140.18 $-492.62
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $368.55 41 $15,110.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:10am ET $356.90 41 $14,633.10 $14,662.68 $-477.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 11:45am ET $371.32 39 $14,481.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 3:00pm ET $390.80 39 $15,241.20 $15,422.40 +$759.72
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,422.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,422.40
Total Return: +54.22%
Back to Marcus Reversal