Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:30:01

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.5 oversold
20d Trend
-29.6%
5d Trend
-14.4%
EMA20 Dist
-18.7%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

69
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.3/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 69.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 69.0

30-Day Momentum

32
+10.4%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.5 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$53,426.86
Current Value
$58,097.02
Period P&L
$4,670.18
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.33

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+6.10%
Worst Trade
-4.88%
Avg Trade Return
+1.54%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$743,380.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,670.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,670.18
Gross Return
+8.74%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.74%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PLTR Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $53,426.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:45am ET $173.76 302 $52,475.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:45am ET $184.36 302 $55,676.72 $55,814.15 +$3,201.20
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
15.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $185.48 300 $55,644.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $176.42 300 $52,926.00 $53,096.15 $-2,718.00
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 11:15am ET $182.30 291 $53,049.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 10:00am ET $176.62 291 $51,394.97 $51,441.82 $-1,654.33
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:00am ET $171.82 299 $51,374.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $165.88 299 $49,598.12 $49,665.76 $-1,776.06
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:00am ET $165.51 300 $49,653.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $174.01 300 $52,201.50 $52,214.26 +$2,548.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:35pm ET $173.54 300 $52,062.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:30am ET $182.30 300 $54,689.76 $54,842.02 +$2,627.76
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 10:45am ET $182.30 300 $54,690.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET $193.15 300 $57,945.00 $58,097.02 +$3,255.00
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $58,097.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$48,097.02
Total Return: +480.97%
Back to Marcus Reversal