Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:36:23

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 21.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 21.6

30-Day Momentum

64
+21.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 86.7 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+43 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,684.80
Current Value
$12,336.96
Period P&L
$1,652.16
Max Drawdown
-46.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.49

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+8.83%
Worst Trade
-3.49%
Avg Trade Return
+2.48%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$164,510.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,652.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,652.16
Gross Return
+15.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,684.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET $38.23 274 $10,474.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:05am ET $40.32 274 $11,047.68 $11,058.81 +$573.51
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:45pm ET $40.18 275 $11,049.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $43.20 275 $11,880.00 $11,889.31 +$830.50
(+7.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:10pm ET $44.99 264 $11,877.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:10am ET $43.57 264 $11,502.48 $11,514.43 $-374.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:40pm ET $45.29 254 $11,503.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $47.63 254 $12,098.02 $12,108.79 +$594.36
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET $50.30 240 $12,072.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:55am ET $48.55 240 $11,651.09 $11,687.88 $-420.91
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $46.86 249 $11,668.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $51.00 249 $12,699.00 $12,718.74 +$1,030.86
(+8.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $50.33 252 $12,684.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:15am ET $48.82 252 $12,302.64 $12,336.96 $-381.78
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,336.96
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,336.96
Total Return: +23.37%
Back to Marcus Reversal