Compendium › Marcus Reversal › REGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
REGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-6.05%
Last Month Return
$6,740.17
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$7,174.14
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:48:18

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
53.6 neutral
20d Trend
-3.7%
5d Trend
+4.3%
EMA20 Dist
+1.1%
ATR%
2.8%
Range Pos
81%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 5.0

30-Day Momentum

1
-6.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,791
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,174.14
Current Value
$6,740.17
Period P&L
$-434.00
Max Drawdown
-50.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.40

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.28%
Worst Trade
-4.48%
Avg Trade Return
-1.58%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$52,068.24
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-434.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$-434.00
Gross Return
-6.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 REGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,174.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 12:35pm ET $835.30 8 $6,682.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $804.65 8 $6,437.20 $6,928.97 $-245.20
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $797.55 8 $6,380.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET $839.63 8 $6,717.04 $7,265.61 +$336.64
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 10:10am ET $844.71 8 $6,757.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $806.85 8 $6,454.80 $6,962.73 $-302.88
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $803.83 8 $6,430.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET $776.01 8 $6,208.08 $6,740.17 $-222.56
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,740.17
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,259.83
Total Return: -32.60%
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