Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:06:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 4.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.8

30-Day Momentum

37
+11.0%
30d Return
56%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.6 Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$5,529.87
Current Value
$5,969.55
Period P&L
$439.67
Max Drawdown
-51.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+5.37%
Worst Trade
-5.29%
Avg Trade Return
+0.83%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$121,844.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$439.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$439.67
Gross Return
+7.95%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.95%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,529.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:25pm ET $20.27 273 $5,533.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 11:55am ET $21.35 273 $5,828.55 $5,846.56 +$294.81
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 12:35pm ET $20.59 283 $5,826.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET $21.69 283 $6,139.68 $6,159.27 +$312.71
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:40am ET $19.38 317 $6,141.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 2:55pm ET $18.78 317 $5,953.26 $5,970.66 $-188.61
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:45am ET $17.97 332 $5,966.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:10pm ET $18.87 332 $6,264.81 $6,269.43 +$298.77
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:55pm ET $21.48 291 $6,250.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:40am ET $22.60 291 $6,575.17 $6,593.92 +$324.49
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:40am ET $21.84 301 $6,573.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $21.17 301 $6,372.17 $6,392.25 $-201.67
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:50pm ET $21.40 298 $6,377.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $20.27 298 $6,040.46 $6,054.94 $-337.31
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $20.55 294 $6,041.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET $19.91 294 $5,853.54 $5,866.78 $-188.16
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:40pm ET $20.50 286 $5,863.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $21.53 286 $6,157.47 $6,161.25 +$294.47
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 12:00pm ET $24.55 250 $6,137.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 1:45pm ET $23.78 250 $5,946.25 $5,969.55 $-191.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,969.55
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,030.45
Total Return: -40.30%
Back to Marcus Reversal