Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:30:24

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

6
-18.1%
30d Return
13%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$5,175.56
Current Value
$4,303.35
Period P&L
$-872.15
Max Drawdown
-51.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.83

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
1 / 7
Best Trade
+5.21%
Worst Trade
-4.60%
Avg Trade Return
-2.43%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$76,459.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-872.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-872.15
Gross Return
-16.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,175.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:30pm ET $16.86 311 $5,245.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $16.32 311 $5,075.52 $5,085.31 $-169.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $16.30 311 $5,069.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:45am ET $15.81 311 $4,915.36 $4,931.37 $-153.94
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:05pm ET $16.11 306 $4,931.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $15.45 306 $4,727.70 $4,727.88 $-203.49
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:35am ET $15.55 304 $4,725.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:50pm ET $16.35 304 $4,971.92 $4,974.12 +$246.24
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:00pm ET $16.12 308 $4,964.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $15.38 308 $4,736.52 $4,745.65 $-228.47
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $15.52 305 $4,732.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET $15.05 305 $4,588.73 $4,602.30 $-143.35
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $15.65 294 $4,599.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET $15.10 294 $4,439.40 $4,442.07 $-160.23
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:45am ET $15.35 289 $4,437.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET $14.88 289 $4,298.88 $4,303.35 $-138.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,303.35
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,696.65
Total Return: -56.97%
Back to Marcus Reversal