Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:48:54

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.8/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 24.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 24.0

30-Day Momentum

7
+1.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 9.7 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,710.09
Current Value
$13,420.73
Period P&L
$-289.34
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
2 / 4
Best Trade
+6.50%
Worst Trade
-4.60%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$161,556.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-289.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$-289.34
Gross Return
-2.11%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,710.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $18.58 737 $13,697.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $17.73 737 $13,067.01 $13,079.94 $-630.13
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $17.52 746 $13,069.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $18.59 746 $13,870.97 $13,880.99 +$801.05
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $18.02 770 $13,875.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:05am ET $17.47 770 $13,451.90 $13,457.49 $-423.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $17.24 780 $13,443.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.66 780 $12,994.80 $13,008.99 $-448.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.76 775 $12,992.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $17.85 775 $13,837.62 $13,853.74 +$844.75
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET $16.94 817 $13,844.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET $16.42 817 $13,411.06 $13,420.73 $-433.01
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,420.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,420.73
Total Return: +34.21%
Back to Marcus Reversal