Compendium › Marcus Reversal › SPXU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPXU
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-1.07%
Last Month Return
$9,689.47
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$9,794.64
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:36:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,794.64
Current Value
$9,689.47
Period P&L
$-105.18
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-3.08%
Avg Trade Return
-0.35%
Avg Hold Time
8.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$58,467.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-105.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$-105.18
Gross Return
-1.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,794.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:35pm ET $34.67 283 $9,811.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:55am ET $33.60 283 $9,510.21 $9,513.09 $-301.39
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 3:45pm ET $34.63 274 $9,489.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $36.40 274 $9,973.60 $9,997.17 +$484.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
16d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:30pm ET $35.57 281 $9,995.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:55am ET $34.47 281 $9,687.47 $9,689.47 $-307.70
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,689.47
Net Profit/Loss: $-310.53
Total Return: -3.11%
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